In terms of changes to the price structure, there is little to report for the past week, as there were hardly any changes in the hazelnut market. Although commodity prices have fallen slightly, this has hardly had any impact on the export price lists so far, as the Turkish lira has also strengthened slightly again. Overall, prices have therefore remained largely unchanged.
Buyers expect price drops, suppliers expect hikes
In terms of demand, there has been a slight increase in buying interest, although there are still few deals being concluded. Buyers continue to expect prices to fall, while the majority of suppliers expect prices to rise as they assume that the availability of raw materials will decrease. This is due to the reluctance of farmers and the assumption that the TMO will not make any sales until after the local elections on 31.03.2024. On the one hand, this assumption is plausible and also very likely; on the other hand, it is also possible that the TMO will become active as early as January.
A look at the export figures for the first three months shows a fundamentally pessimistic picture of the season. The figures are around 15% lower than in the previous year. Although the late start to the season has to be put into perspective, the figures nevertheless call for caution and show how quickly sales react to price fluctuations. For this reason, earlier action by the TMO cannot be ruled out.
In terms of the exchange rate, we note a slight increase in the Turkish lira against the euro. However, this is in the region of around 1% and is therefore within the normal fluctuation range.
We expect buyers to show increased interest in the market in the coming weeks, although we do not expect buyers to switch their strategy to long-term cover. Cover is likely to continue to be provided only for short-term dates. It is interesting that some sellers now seem to be making initial concessions on prices for later deliveries. It is still too early to assess this.
Bullet points
- Commodity prices fall slightly as some sellers need liquidity. Export price lists remain virtually unaffected by this.
- Buyers are signaling increased interest in the hazelnut market while buying interest remains low.
- No news from the market leader or the TMO.
- Despite adjustments, export price lists remain very heterogeneous.
- The premiums resulting from financing costs are currently preventing deals for later dates, which is why the business continues to stagnate, although there are initial concessions from some suppliers, which we cannot yet confirm ourselves.