The global mango market is entering a critical phase as production giants like Pakistan contend with significant structural, cost, and quality challenges, even as export opportunities expand. Pakistan, ranked as the world’s sixth-largest producer with over 1.2 million tons annually and some 200 varieties, exports less than 10% of its output—primarily due to outdated cultivation techniques, post-harvest losses, and high cost barriers. Comparatively, advanced producers such as Australia and Egypt utilize high-density planting, greatly enhancing yields and export quality.
Infrastructure limitations—especially lack of modern packaging, cold chain, and value addition facilities—undermine Pakistan’s export competitiveness, despite its position as a top supplier to fast-growing Chinese markets. In 2023, Pakistan exported over 115,000 tons to China, generating USD 80 million and capitalizing on e-commerce growth. With modernization, experts believe not only could export volumes double, but global competitiveness in processed mango products would surge as well. Dried mango prices remain stable, but remain exposed to shifting costs, improved logistics, and weather volatility affecting major producers. This moment is pivotal: investment in efficiency, technology, and government reform could trigger dramatic growth in both export quantity and product innovation.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Mango dried
chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm MOISTURE 13 – 19 %
FOB 5.62 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
slices: 5 – 9 cm. Chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm
FOB 5.85 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
normal sugar, 8-10 mm
FCA 4.57 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices – Latest Mango Market Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Closing Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mango dried | Chunks (2–3 cm, 13–19% moisture) | Vietnam | Hanoi, VN | FOB | 5.62 | 0.00% | Neutral |
| Mango dried | Slices (5–9 cm); Chunks (2–3 cm) | Vietnam | Hanoi, VN | FOB | 5.85 | 0.00% | Neutral |
| Mango dried | Normal sugar, 8–10 mm | Thailand | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.57 | 0.00% | Neutral/Slightly Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Pakistan produces over 1.2 million tons of mangoes but exports only 10% due to outdated farming and high losses (up to 30% waste).
- Rising demand in China and new e-commerce channels support future export growth.
- High input costs, lack of subsidies, expensive electricity/gas, and complex registration deter farm modernization and export scalability.
- India, Mexico, Peru, and the Philippines hold large market shares in processed mango, providing intense export competition.
- Processed mango demand (dried, pulped) is growing fastest in Europe and the US, benefitting countries with modern infrastructure.
📊 Fundamentals: Global Production, Inventory & Processing
| Country | 2023 Est. Production (kTons) | Export Share | Key Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 22,000 | Approx. 2.5% | UAE, EU, US |
| Pakistan | 1,200 | Approx. 10% | China, ME, EU |
| Mexico | 2,000 | Approx. 15% | US, EU |
| Peru | 510 | 18% | EU, US |
- Pakistan: Only 40–60 trees/acre; 30% losses post-harvest; huge export upside with modernization (dwarf/rootstock, cold chain, value addition).
- China: Top destination for Pakistani mangoes (2023: >115,000 tons, >USD 80M); e-commerce boom, >98% satisfaction district.
- Global Inventory: Inventories level due to steady production; some supply pressure from weather and logistics disruptions in main origins.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Pakistan (Sindh, Punjab): Early summer heat and erratic monsoon rains threaten flowering and fruit set—risk of localized crop loss; cool-chain investment can offset spoilage spikes.
- India (Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh): Timely monsoon rains—production set to be average to slightly above average.
- Vietnam & Thailand (main dried mango exporters): Mixed weather (showers and sunshine), generally favorable for harvest; no major concerns for dried mango production.
📌 Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Expect steady prices in dried mango segment; upside limited by competitive supply from Vietnam and Thailand.
- Paksitani origin: Watch for signs of modernization—any quick investments or subsidies could boost supply and pressurize international prices.
- For importers: Secure forward contracts before mid-September, as late-season quality risk could drive premiums.
- For exporters (Pakistan, Vietnam): Invest in cold chain and value-added product lines to tap premium markets (Europe, China).
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region (Exchange/Hub) | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB) | 5.62 / 5.85 | 5.60 – 5.85 | Stable |
| Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA) | 4.57 | 4.55 – 4.60 | Slight downside |
Summary: Major price moves are unlikely in the coming week, but policy or weather shocks in Pakistan or India could alter medium-term direction. Watch for modernization signals in Pakistan and evolving export flows to China for potential longer term upside opportunity.
