The global mango market stands at a pivotal moment, shaped by a complex web of regional dynamics, shifting trade patterns, and evolving consumer preferences. As we head into late 2025, the sector is marked by a distinct duality: while key European markets wrestle with oversupply and weakened prices, opportunities are expanding elsewhere, propelled by rising demand, regulatory changes, and continuous innovation in supply chains and quality management.
Southern Europe is currently bearing the brunt of abundant imports, with Spanish and Israeli mango prices falling dramatically due to a glut in wholesale channels. Meanwhile, the upcoming domestic harvests in Italy and Spain could further pressure prices, despite promising quality prospects. North America’s market is experiencing a shake-up as the U.S. implements steep tariffs on Brazilian mangoes, diverting volumes to Europe and pushing North American prices higher due to tightening supply. Across Asia and Africa, favorable weather in some regions and strategic advancements in others are fueling both stable export performance and optimism for future seasons. These regional stories are underpinned by broader themes: logistics bottlenecks, vigorous competition, and an ever-growing focus on fruit quality to meet global consumer standards. The months ahead promise continued volatility, favoring agile producers and diversified traders.
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Mango dried
chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm MOISTURE 13 – 19 %
FOB 5.62 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
slices: 5 – 9 cm. Chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm
FOB 5.85 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
normal sugar, 8-10 mm
FCA 4.57 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Mango Prices: Key Exchange and Market Overview
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mango dried | Chunks: 2–3cm, 2–15mm thick, 13–19% moisture | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.62 | 5.62 | 0% | Stable |
| Mango dried | Slices 5–9cm + Chunks 2–3cm, 2–15mm thick | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.85 | 5.85 | 0% | Stable |
| Mango dried | Normal sugar, 8–10mm | Thailand | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.57 | 4.57 | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Regional Supply & Demand Update
Europe
- Italy: Strong tourist demand, but oversupply from Israel, Mexico, S. America, and Egypt is pushing prices lower. Spanish Osteen mangoes dropped from €3–4/kg to €1.60/kg; Israeli varieties at ~€1/kg.
- Spain: Malaga’s Tommy Atkins/Irwin harvest underway; Osteen (70–80% of total) expected soon. Output forecast: 30,000–35,000 tons, up on favorable rainfall. Spanish mangoes expected to edge out Brazilian imports thanks to better logistics.
- Netherlands & Germany: Demand weak, supply limited but oversupplied since July. Promotion-driven price pressure. Expected shortage of Brazilian Keitt in October.
- France: Slow demand, rapid market gain by Spanish Osteen mango (season 3x last year’s, but shorter duration).
Americas
- Mexico: 2025 season ends with 2–5% export increase despite weather/tariffs. Kent and Keitt prices rising as supply tightens.
- Brazil: Output set to rise 32% y/y after adverse weather. 50% U.S. import tariff diverts surplus to EU; U.S. absorbs much less. Exports redirected to South America; Chile & Argentina seeing greater flows.
Asia & Africa
- India: Stable export season for Alphonso, Kesar. Heavy rain shortened Alphonso window, but overall demand held steady—focus on Singapore, Canada, UK, U.S.
- Pakistan: Robust Middle East & EU demand, expansion into South Africa & Central Asia. Premium quality due to improved post-harvest practices.
- Philippines: Sector modernization underway; stronger export readiness expected.
- South Africa: 2024/25 crop 70,236 tons (+9% exported); upward trend, although Europe/Asia-bound exports declined.
- Egypt: 20–30% lower volume vs. last year, but localized demand (Russia, region, EU for Naomi mangoes) remains firm.
- Senegal: Record 27,000–30,000 tons exported (up from 9,000 ton). Higher prices and better pest management; cold storage limiting further growth.
📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals
- 🌦️ Weather: Spain reports positive rainfall supporting yield; Brazil recovers after spring heatwaves that limited flowering; India/Pakistan faced rain-disrupted early seasons but largely recovered.
- 📉 Tariffs: U.S. 50% import levy on Brazilian mangoes reshapes exports flows, leading to oversupply risks for Europe late 2025.
- 📦 Supply Chain: European logistics favored for Spanish mangoes over Brazilian. Storage limitations (Senegal) and post-harvest advances (Pakistan, PH) influencing trade access and pricing.
- 📈 Demand Trends: Stagnation in some EU markets (Germany, Netherlands, France), contrasted with new market entries (South Africa, Central Asia) and continued premium-segment growth (Middle East, UK).
🌤️ Weather Outlook & Production Impact
- Mediterranean Europe (Spain, Italy): Short-term forecast is mild with periodic showers, supporting fruit setting and projected yields for the next 2–3 weeks.
- South America (Brazil, Peru): Stable weather expected, though sporadic rain may disrupt harvest operations in key states. Risk of localized flooding is low.
- South Asia (India, Pakistan): Drier than usual, reducing post-season disease risk but requiring irrigation maintenance ahead of next season.
- Africa (Senegal, Egypt, South Africa): Generally dry and warm, supporting late-season ripening in South Africa. Egypt to see continued favorable weather for 2025 flowering.
🌍 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | Latest Production (000 Tons) | % Change y/y | Export Share (%) | Key Export Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | ~1,200 | +32% | ~45% | EU, Chile, Argentina, U.S.* |
| Mexico | ~2,050 | +2–5% | 52% | U.S., EU |
| Spain | 30–35 | +15% | 60% (est) | EU |
| India | 24,700 | Stable | 2% | US, EU, Middle East, Asia |
| Pakistan | 1,800 | +5% | 7% | EU, Middle East, SA, CA |
| South Africa | 70 | +9% | 9% | Middle East, EU |
| Egypt | 1,100 | -20% | 6% | Russia, EU, ME |
| Senegal | ~30 | +220% | 90% | EU (NL), ME |
*U.S. volume down sharply due to new tariffs.
📆 Trading Outlook & Key Takeaways
- 🔻 Short term: Expect further price pressure in Europe as Spanish and Italian harvests peak; cautious buying recommended until oversupply clears.
- 💡 Speculators: Watch for pricing floor in October as Brazilian supply to Europe surges; market could tighten thereafter if demand normalizes.
- ✅ Producers: Focus on post-harvest quality and branding (premium/sustainable) to stand out in crowded EU market—especially amid competition from Spain and Brazil.
- 🚛 Exporters: Diversify end-markets, especially from South America and Africa, as tariff-driven trade shifts will persist through 2025.
- ⏳ Longer term: Invest in modern packing, cold chain, and marketing—demand growth in Asia and premium Middle Eastern/European niches provides resilience against cyclical downturns.
🌦️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain (Osteen, Malaga) | 1.60 | 1.50–1.70 | ➡️ Stable to Slightly Down |
| Italy (Basilicata) | 2.00 (est.) | 1.80–2.10 | ➡️ Stable |
| Brazil (Export FOB) | 1.10 | 1.05–1.15 | ➡️ Stable |
| Mexico (Kent/Keitt) | 2.40 | 2.30–2.50 | ⬆️ Slightly Up |
| Dried (Vietnam FOB) | 5.62–5.85 | 5.60–5.90 | ➡️ Stable |
| Dried (TH, NL FCA) | 4.57 | 4.55–4.60 | ➡️ Stable |
