Market Report: Wheat Prices Under Pressure – Competition from Argentina and Russia Increases
Euronext Wheat Drops to Two-Month Low
Wheat prices at Euronext continued to decline, with the next maturity contract for March 2025 falling €1.25 to €224.75/t, the lowest level since December 4, 2024. The key drivers were weak export demand from Europe and increasing competition from cheaper Russian and Argentine wheat.
CBoT Wheat Shows Slight Recovery
At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), wheat prices initially weakened but recovered slightly. The March 2025 contract gained +4.50 ct to 549.75 ct/bu (+0.83%). The recovery was supported by strong U.S. export data, despite continued pressure from falling corn and soybean prices.
Key Market Drivers
Argentina and Russia Lower Global Wheat Prices
- Russian wheat export prices increased due to tightening supply but remain competitive.
- IKAR assessed **12.5% protein wheat (FOB, end of February) at €226.99/t, up €2.40 from last week.
- SovEcon raised its January export forecast by +100,000 t to 2.1 million t.
➝ However, exports remain well below 3.4 million t in December 2024. - Argentina reduced wheat export taxes from 12% to 9.5%, making Argentine wheat cheaper on the global market.
- Argentine wheat prices (FOB) fell to €215.91–€218.80/t, increasing competition for European and U.S. exports.
Weakening U.S. Dollar Supports CBoT Prices
- The declining U.S. dollar is boosting U.S. wheat’s competitiveness in export markets.
- The latest USDA export report showed strong demand from Japan and South Korea:
- 484,544 t of wheat exports in the week ending January 23
- +85% increase from the previous week
- +100% compared to the same period last year
Strong Euro Hurts European Exports
- The Euro has strengthened by 2.7% since January 13, making European wheat exports less competitive.
- French wheat exports remain weak, with shipments to Algeria and China collapsing.
- Morocco remains the only significant European export market, but Russia is gaining market share.
Wheat Market Prices Overview
| Market | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euronext (March 2025) | €224.75/t | -€1.25 (-0.6%) |
| CBoT (March 2025) | 549.75 ct/bu | +4.50 ct (+0.83%) |
| Russian Wheat (FOB) | €226.99/t | +€2.40 |
| Argentine Wheat (FOB) | €215.91–€218.80/t | – due to lower export taxes |
Rapeseed Futures at Euronext Show Small Gains
Rapeseed futures at Euronext saw slight gains:
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2025 | €513.75 | +0.75 | +0.15% |
| May 2025 | €517.00 | +0.25 | +0.05% |
| August 2025 | €485.50 | +2.25 | +0.47% |
The November 2025 contract led gains, rising €3/t to €486.50/t.
Outlook
- Wheat:
- Increased competition from cheaper Argentine and Russian wheat continues to pressure prices.
- A weaker U.S. dollar supports U.S. exports, preventing further declines.
- Upcoming USDA reports and U.S. weather conditions remain key factors.
- Rapeseed:
- Stable demand and tight supply could continue to support prices.
Conclusion:
The wheat market is facing challenging conditions, with short-term price pressure likely to persist due to aggressive export competition from Argentina and Russia. Upcoming USDA reports and U.S. weather developments will be crucial for price direction.
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