Mexico Grain Market Outlook – 2025/2026

Mexico Grain Market Outlook – 2025/2026

Higher Corn, Sorghum, and Rice Output – Wheat Hit by Drought

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🧾 Summary

Mexico’s grain outlook for MY 2025/26 is mixed:

• Corn, rice, and sorghum production are projected to rise due to strong domestic demand and better prices.
• Wheat production, however, is forecast to decline sharply due to severe drought, especially in key producing states like Sonora and Sinaloa.
• Import dependence remains high for wheat and rice.

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📊 Key Figures – 2025/26 Forecast (FAS Mexico City)

Commodity	Production (MMT)	Imports (MMT)	Consumption (MMT)	Ending Stocks (MMT)
Corn	24.5	24.8	49.5	5.5
Wheat	1.7	6.4	8.2	0.37
Rice	0.177	0.88	1.02	0.15
Sorghum	4.375	0.45	4.8	0.29

 

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🌽 Corn

• Production up 7% from last year due to higher white corn prices and stock drawdowns.
• Imports are expected to decline slightly (−2%) as more yellow corn stocks are used.
• Spring/summer planting has increased in Jalisco, Michoacán, and Chihuahua.
• Domestic prices for white corn are 19% above last year, creating a strong incentive for growers.

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🌾 Wheat

• Production falls 36% – lowest in 30 years – mainly due to drought and record-low reservoir levels in Sonora.
• Imports to rise 23% to compensate.
• Durum wheat area fell sharply; only 59,439 ha planted in Sonora (−76%).
• Government support programs face payment delays and low coverage, reducing farmer confidence.

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🍚 Rice

• Production to rise 4% to 177,000 MT (milled basis), driven by rising domestic demand.
• Imports to increase slightly, still covering 85–90% of consumption.
• Strong import share from the U.S., Thailand, Brazil, and Uruguay.
• The government’s Plan Campeche aims to more than double paddy production by 2030.

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🌾 Sorghum

• Production expected up 4% to 4.375 MMT.
• Sorghum remains popular in feed markets due to lower input and water needs.
• Imports forecast to rise 29% as U.S. sorghum becomes more price competitive.
• Producers in Tamaulipas seek a guaranteed price of 6,000 pesos/MT amid falling global prices.

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⚖️ Trade & Consumption

• Corn imports still over 24 MMT, dominated by U.S. supply.
• Wheat imports fill the gap left by domestic crop shortfalls – 73% sourced from the U.S.
• Rice and sorghum imports are increasing, largely from the U.S.
• Mexico’s feed demand continues to grow, driven by the poultry, pork, and cattle sectors.

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🔍 Policy Update

The Presidential Anti-Inflation Decree (extended through 2025) allows duty-free grain imports for many staple products, including:

• White corn (non-GMO only)
• Wheat, wheat flour
• Rice
• Sorghum (with seasonal restrictions)

Source: USDA