Millet Market Analysis: Navigating Steady Prices Amid Shifting Demand and Supply Dynamics

The global millet market is currently experiencing a period of relative price stability, with localised downward pressure in some regions. Despite a steady supply situation, market fundamentals are evolving as both demand and procurement behaviour shift. In China, the proportion of remaining millet stocks stands at 32.29% of total production, with adequate supplies in areas like Chifeng, while stocks are tighter elsewhere. As temperatures rise, consumer demand for millet-based products like millet porridge is waning—a seasonal trend that is further exacerbated by the fact that most milling plants are holding sufficient low-cost inventories.

This has led to a noticeable drop in procurement enthusiasm, with most processors focusing on utilising existing stocks rather than making new purchases. On the cost side, a slight increase in marketable supplies in some regions and a lack of aggressive buying by millers have led to a modest relaxation in acquisition costs. Overall, the market outlook hinges on a delicate balance between available supply, subdued demand, and the evolving cost structure. Weather conditions in key growing regions and global trade flows will be critical factors to watch in the coming weeks, especially as the market transitions toward the new crop season.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Organic	Delivery	Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price (USD/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow		No	FOB	0.19	0.19	2025-05-28	Stable
Millet seeds	PL	Kiełczygłow	raw, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.30	0.32	2025-05-28	Weak
Millet seeds	PL	Kiełczygłow	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	FCA	0.44	0.48	2025-05-28	Weak
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.90%	Yes	FOB	0.83	0.82	2025-05-27	Stable
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	FOB	0.73	0.74	2025-05-27	Weak
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	inshell, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.23	0.21	2025-05-23	Firm
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	inshell, red	98%	No	FCA	0.23	0.21	2025-05-23	Firm
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow	99%	Yes	FCA	1.20	1.20	2025-05-23	Stable
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.40	0.40	2025-05-23	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Remaining stocks represent 32.29% of total production. The Chifeng region has a moderate supply, while other areas face tighter availability.
• Demand: Warmer weather is reducing consumer demand for millet products. Most millers are well-stocked with low-cost millet, leading to lower procurement activity.
• Global Context: Ukraine and Poland continue to supply competitively priced millet to the international market, with stable to slightly weaker price trends.

📊 Fundamentals

• Procurement Costs: Slight easing in some regions as marketable supply increases, but miller demand remains low.
• Speculative Positioning: No significant speculative activity reported; market remains driven by physical supply and demand fundamentals.
• Inventory Levels: High inventory at processing plants is a key factor suppressing new purchases.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• China (Northeast, North China Plain): Recent weather data indicates near-normal temperatures and precipitation, supporting crop development. However, any deviation toward excessive rainfall or drought could impact yields.
• Ukraine & Poland: Favourable weather persists for millet crops, with no major threats reported. Watch for late-season heatwaves or storms.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (est. million tonnes)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (est. million tonnes)
China	4.7	1.5
India	11.5	2.1
Nigeria	5.7	0.7
Ukraine	0.3	0.1
Poland	0.08	0.02

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Short-term: Expect stable to slightly weaker prices as demand remains subdued and inventories are high.
• ⏳ Medium-term: Monitor weather developments in key producing regions and any signs of renewed demand as temperatures moderate.
• 📦 Buyers: Consider opportunistic purchases if prices dip further, but avoid aggressive buying given current inventory levels.
• 🚚 Sellers: Focus on regions with tighter supply for better pricing; avoid overcommitting stock in weak demand zones.
• ⚠️ Risk Factors: Watch for sudden weather disruptions or trade policy changes that could tighten supply.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (USD/kg)	Forecast Range (USD/kg)	Sentiment
Ukraine (Odesa, FCA)	0.19-0.23	0.18-0.23	Stable/Weak
Poland (Kiełczygłow, FCA)	0.30-0.44	0.29-0.43	Weak
China (Beijing, FOB)	0.73-0.83	0.72-0.83	Stable