The millet market is currently navigating a complex but promising landscape, with recent price adjustments catching the attention of traders and buyers alike. Bajra (pearl millet) prices have shown a mild downward trend, dropping by approximately $0.30–$0.60 per quintal amid active sowing across major producing states such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana. Improved monsoon activity is reportedly leading to an expansion in acreage, which could add downward pressure on prices in the near term. However, tight stock availability and limited arrivals from older inventories create a counterbalancing upward risk, making the current market scenario particularly attractive for buyers looking to secure future needs at relatively favorable levels.
In India, current mandi prices for bajra hover between $27 and $29 per quintal, with Gujarat and Bihar holding firm and occasionally higher rates. Meanwhile, in international markets, Ukrainian and Chinese millet offers are steady to slightly lower, reflecting global sentiment and supply chain fluidity. As government procurement is on hold and monsoon forecasts remain positive, stakeholders must navigate price variations, acreage expectations, and regional weather risks. Buyers should weigh the ongoing price softness against tight supply fundamentals, especially as planting momentum and meteorological developments unfold.
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Millet seeds
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Millet kernels
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FCA 0.40 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Type | Purity | Organic | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Latest Update | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millet seeds | Ukraine (Odesa) | Inshell, yellow | 98% | No | FCA | 0.23 | 0.00 | 2025-07-25 | Stable |
| Millet seeds | Ukraine (Odesa) | Inshell, red | 98% | No | FCA | 0.24 | -0.01 | 2025-07-25 | Softening |
| Millet kernels | Ukraine (Odesa) | Hulled, yellow | 98% | No | FCA | 0.40 | 0.00 | 2025-07-25 | Firm |
| Millet kernels | China (Beijing) | Hulled, yellow | 99.90% | Yes | FOB | 0.77 | -0.01 | 2025-07-23 | Softening |
| Millet seeds | Poland (Kiełczygłow) | Raw, yellow | 98% | No | FCA | 0.28 | -0.01 | 2025-07-18 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Active sowing due to favorable monsoon, especially in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana, suggests rising production potential.
- Stock Arrivals: Limited old stock arrivals prompt persistent background support to prices.
- Buy-side Dynamics: Government procurement is minimal, but tight supplies and regional demand (notably in Bihar and Gujarat) keep prices supported.
- Global Market: Ukrainian and Chinese offers are stable to slightly weaker, reflecting international steadiness.
📊 Fundamentals
- Recent USDA reports indicate a marginal rise in global millet acreage, supported by favorable planting weather in Asia and Africa.
- Global inventories are stable but not excessive, with Indian market showing particular tightness versus international offers.
- Speculative activity remains subdued; most buying is end-user driven as stockists await further monsoon development before repositioning.
- Food security programs and nutritional trends in various importing countries (e.g., Africa) sustain broad-based demand for millet products.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India: The monsoon has picked up across northern and western millet belts. Short-term rainfall forecasts are positive, expected to boost planted area and yield potential, provided no excessive flooding occurs.
- Ukraine and Russia: Showers with moderate temperatures support healthy crop development, but logistical risks persist due to regional tensions.
- China: Conditions are normal, barring localized temperature spikes—overall yield outlook is solid.
- EU: Seasonally typical weather, with steady temperature and periodic showers, helping to maintain crop quality.
🏭 Production & Stock Comparisons
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (mln t) | 2024/25 Stocks (mln t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 11.8 | 1.7 | +1.5% |
| Nigeria | 5.8 | 0.9 | ~0% |
| China | 1.6 | 0.3 | +2.5% |
| Russia | 0.9 | 0.2 | -4.0% |
| Ukraine | 0.6 | 0.1 | +3.1% |
📆 Market Drivers
- Improved Indian monsoon fosters optimism for higher planting areas and yields.
- Tight Indian domestic stock supports spot market but may shift with increasing arrivals from new crop.
- Slowdown in government buying could exacerbate any short-term dips.
- Stable to softer global offers from key origins (Ukraine, China) guide international sentiment.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Current bajra prices provide a favorable entry point for buyers seeking forward cover.
- Monitor progress of Indian monsoon—rapid acreage expansion could drive short-term price softness but entails upside risks if rainfall disappoints.
- End-users should consider staggered purchases across states with moderate rates (e.g., Uttar Pradesh) to optimize procurement costs.
- Exporters from Ukraine and China should hedge against further softening, especially as global harvest pressure looms.
- Watch for government procurement announcements that may alter local price floors in India.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Price Range (EUR/kg) | Direction | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (Uttar Pradesh Mandis) | 0.31–0.33 | Sideways | Stable amid sowing, minor downside risk |
| Ukraine (Odesa FCA) | 0.22–0.24 | Soft to sideways | Firm against global peers, but watch for harvest |
| China (Beijing FOB) | 0.68–0.77 | Stable/Soft | Well supplied, minor downward move possible |