The global millet market is experiencing a nuanced phase marked by localised price upticks, especially in China, while international prices exhibit mixed trends. In China, the market is seeing a slight rise in millet prices in some regions due to a combination of moderate supply constraints and tepid downstream demand. The proportion of remaining stocks is about 32.86% of total output, with inventories distributed across grassroots and intermediary channels. Notably, some regions still hold old-crop millet, which supports overall supply stability. However, procurement by processing mills is cautious, with most buyers maintaining adequate inventories and only a minority engaging in restocking.
Quality requirements are rising, and if grain traders slow their purchases, localised price corrections could occur. Internationally, Ukrainian and Polish millet prices show stability or minor fluctuations, reflecting regional harvest and trade dynamics.
Weather conditions in key growing regions, particularly in China and Ukraine, are being closely watched as the planting season progresses, with forecasts indicating generally favourable, though regionally variable, conditions that could impact yields. This complex interplay of supply, demand, and external factors sets the stage for a millet market that is stable yet sensitive to shifts in procurement and weather developments.
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Millet kernels
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Millet seeds
inshell, yellow
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FCA 0.23 €/kg
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📈 Latest Millet Market Prices
| Origin | Location | Type | Purity | Organic | Delivery | Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price (USD/kg) | Change | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Beijing | Hulled, yellow | 99.90% | Yes | FOB | 0.82 | 0.84 | -2.4% | 2025-05-21 | Neutral/Soft |
| China | Beijing | Hulled, yellow | 99.95% | No | FOB | 0.74 | 0.76 | -2.6% | 2025-05-21 | Neutral/Soft |
| Ukraine | Odesa | Inshell, yellow | 98% | No | FCA | 0.21 | 0.20 | +5.0% | 2025-05-16 | Firm |
| Ukraine | Odesa | Hulled, yellow | 99% | Yes | FCA | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.0% | 2025-05-16 | Stable |
| Poland | Kiełczygłow | Hulled, yellow | 99.95% | No | FCA | 0.48 | 0.46 | +4.3% | 2025-05-12 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- China: Remaining millet stocks are 32.86% of total production, distributed at the grassroots and intermediary levels. Some old-crop supplies persist, keeping the overall supply adequate, though new arrivals are limited.
- Demand: Most downstream mills hold sufficient inventories and display low procurement enthusiasm. Only a few are restocking, with a clear preference for higher quality.
- International: Ukraine and Poland continue to offer stable to firm prices, with European demand showing modest recovery.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Supply Tightness: While overall supply is stable, localised shortages are emerging due to slow replenishment and higher quality standards.
- Demand Hesitancy: End-users remain cautious, with most mills not actively purchasing and only occasional restocking.
- Cost Considerations: Rising quality demands and slow procurement could pressure prices lower in some regions if traders reduce buying speed.
- Speculative Positioning: No significant speculative activity reported; market is largely driven by physical trade and immediate supply-demand fundamentals.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- China: Recent weather patterns have been generally favourable for millet planting and early growth, though some northern regions face intermittent dryness. Continued monitoring is advised as the season progresses.
- Ukraine: Mild temperatures and adequate rainfall support crop development, with no major threats reported. However, any shift towards drought could impact yields later in the season.
- Poland: Weather remains supportive, with good soil moisture aiding emergence and establishment.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. million t) | 2024/25 Stocks (est. million t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 4.2 | 1.4 | Stable |
| India | 10.8 | 2.7 | +2% |
| Ukraine | 0.18 | 0.04 | -5% |
| Poland | 0.07 | 0.01 | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor procurement activity by Chinese mills—price corrections are possible if buying slows further.
- Quality premiums may widen; sellers should focus on higher-grade lots.
- Weather remains a key risk factor for both China and Ukraine; stay alert to forecast changes.
- International buyers may find value in Ukrainian and Polish-origin millet as prices remain competitive.
- Short-term: Range-bound trading is likely, with upside in localised Chinese markets and stability in Europe.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| China (Beijing, FOB) | 0.82 | 0.82–0.84 | Neutral to Slightly Firm |
| Ukraine (Odesa, FCA) | 0.21 | 0.21–0.22 | Stable |
| Poland (Kiełczygłow, FCA) | 0.48 | 0.47–0.49 | Stable/Firm |
