Millet Market Holds Firm Amid Harvest Delays in Rajasthan: Rains Build Price Support

Consistent rainfall in Rajasthan, India—one of the world’s key millet-producing regions—is setting the stage for notable market movements as the Bajra (pearl millet) harvest faces delays. While the millet market has maintained stability in recent weeks, persistent monsoon-related disruptions are expected to slow new crop arrivals, tightening supply in several local markets. The short-term impact is upward price pressure as buyers and processors brace for moderated availability. Meanwhile, domestic demand for Bajra and related coarse grains, such as sorghum (Juwar), remains robust even as arrivals trickle in.

Market observers expect stable to moderately firmer prices as rain delays prolong inventory turnover, offering short-term security to holders but potentially presenting renewed volatility if weather disruptions persist into harvest peak. Current market observations show steady prices across Indian locales, while global offers from Ukraine, China, and Poland signal mixed trends but little dramatic change. Weather, logistics, and overseas demand are likely to define the market mood in the coming weeks, keeping traders on their toes as the 2025/26 campaign unfolds.

📈 Prices: Key Market Levels

Market / Origin	Product	Grade	Delivery	Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds	inshell, yellow, 98%	FCA	0.25	0.00	Steady
Odesa (UA)	Millet kernels	hulled, yellow, 99% organic	FCA	1.20	0.00	Steady
Beijing (CN)	Millet kernels	hulled, yellow, 99.90% organic	FOB	0.82	+0.02	Firm
Kiełczygłow (PL)	Millet seeds	hulled, yellow, 99.95%	FCA	0.45	+0.01	Firm
Rajasthan (IN) — Local Market	Ajra (pearl millet)	medium-high	Local	44.98–45.20 ($/qtl)	—	Stable-Firm
Bikaner (IN) — Local Market	Ajra (pearl millet)	medium	Local	39.55–43.78 ($/qtl)	—	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Landscape

• Arrivals: New crop Bajra arrivals delayed in Rajasthan, with only 300 quintals (local markets) and 40 quintals (Bikaner) reported at stable prices.
• Sorghum (Juwar): Similar trends; 70 quintals arrived, priced at $39.55–$39.98/quintal.
• Demand: Remains steady for food, fodder, and processing, supporting market stability amid weather concerns.
• Stocks: Domestic and overseas inventories remain comfortable, but India’s local supply could tighten if rain persists.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Production delays: Monsoon rains in Northern India threaten to push back the main harvesting window, impacting marketable surplus.
• Acreage & Yields: Sowing has been favorable in most areas; yield risk now tilts to continued excess rains.
• Speculative activity: Low, given a traditionally physical-driven market—though short-covering is possible if prices rise further on delayed arrivals.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

• India – Rajasthan: Weather models project continued above-average rainfall over the next 3–5 days; flooding risks remain localized.
• Ukraine/China/Poland: Mixed, with generally stable late-summer weather supporting steady field conditions—no immediate threats to millet crops reported.

This persistent rainfall poses risk of lower harvest quality and further delays in Indian supply chains, but global exporters remain largely unaffected for now.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Snapshot

Country	2024/25 Production (est.)	Stocks (est.)	Key Market Role
India	~12.5 mln t	2.2 mln t	Largest producer & consumer
Nigeria	~5.5 mln t	1.0 mln t	Africa’s main grower
Ukraine	~350,000 t	Varies	Leading exporter to EU/Asia
China	~2.1 mln t	0.8 mln t	Top Asian supplier
Poland	~90,000 t	N/A	Regional supplier to EU

📌 Market Drivers & News Flow

• 🔸 Weather: Persistent rains in Rajasthan driving harvest delays.
• 🔸 Export Offers: Prices in Ukraine, Poland, and China are firm to steady with minor upticks in Chinese and Polish markets.
• 🔸 Analyst Sentiment: Price stability with an upward bias short term if India’s arrivals stay slow.
• 🔸 Speculative positions: Low, but funds may enter if volatility escalates.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Outlook

• India (Rajasthan): Prices expected to remain stable but bias higher, targeting $45.50–46.00/qtl as arrivals lag.
• Ukraine (Odesa): Prices steady at EUR 0.25–0.26/kg for bulk, with firmness if Indian delays shift global demand.
• China (Beijing): Minor firmness possible, with prices holding between EUR 0.82–0.85/kg for hulled, organic kernels.
• Poland (PL): Momentum slightly bullish, aiming for EUR 0.45–0.47/kg, supported by intra-EU demand.

🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Secure short- to medium-term coverage, especially in India, as local prices are likely to firm on weather-driven supply delays.
• Exporters (UA, CN, PL): Monitor Indian weather for additional upside risks.
• Holders: Retaining stocks in India could yield better prices if rains persist; global holders should monitor for spillover demand.
• Importers: Diversify sources as Asian supply may tighten.