The global millet market has entered a phase of notable stability, as recent activity in India’s key mandi hubs, such as Rajkot and Deesa, reflects steady arrivals and quietly consistent pricing. While pearl millet (bajra) continues to flow into the market—with Rajkot registering about 500 bags and Deesa welcoming 240—the absence of a demand surge has muted any meaningful price appreciation. Across the mandis, trade for good-quality pearl millet remains at USD 28.00–28.60 per 20 kg, showing resilience but little impetus for upward movement. This atmosphere of tranquility is shared across regions, with similar steadiness in both European and Chinese millet markets, as reflected in the current export offer prices.
Market participants appear to be in a holding pattern, cautious about potential harvest changes and future demand swings. Unless a significant uptick in consumption or weather-induced supply shock is registered, the outlook suggests muted price action. Nonetheless, overseas trade flows remain robust, underpinned by competitive pricing in Ukraine, Poland, and China for shipments into global feed, food, and processing chains. For those active in millet, vigilance for changing weather conditions or sudden demand shifts remains critical as the season progresses.
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📈 Prices
| Exchange/Origin | Product Type | Quality | Price | Currency | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | Pearl millet (bajra) | Good | 28.20–28.60 | USD/20kg | ±0.00 | Stable |
| Deesa (IN) | Pearl millet (bajra) | Average | 28.50 | USD/20kg | ±0.00 | Steady |
| Odesa (UA) | Millet seeds, yellow hulled | 0.19 | EUR/kg (FOB) | 0.00 | Stable | |
| Odesa (UA) | Millet seeds, red inshell | 98% | 0.25 | EUR/kg (FCA) | +0.01 | Firming |
| Odesa (UA) | Millet seeds, yellow inshell | 98% | 0.25 | EUR/kg (FCA) | +0.01 | Firming |
| Odesa (UA) | Millet kernels, hulled | 98% non-organic | 0.40 | EUR/kg (FCA) | 0.00 | Stable |
| Odesa (UA) | Millet kernels, hulled | 99% organic | 1.20 | EUR/kg (FCA) | 0.00 | Stable |
| Beijing (CN) | Millet kernels, hulled | 99.90% organic | 0.80 | EUR/kg (FOB) | -0.01 | Soft |
| Beijing (CN) | Millet kernels, hulled | 99.95% non-organic | 0.72 | EUR/kg (FOB) | -0.02 | Soft |
| Kiełczygłow (PL) | Millet seeds, hulled yellow | 99.95% non-organic | 0.44 | EUR/kg (FCA) | -0.01 | Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India’s key markets (Rajkot, Deesa) report ample arrivals and stable pricing, with moderate demand keeping a lid on price movements.
- Ukraine and China continue to offer competitively priced millet for export, supporting global demand for both food and feed applications.
- Speculators remain sidelined amid low volatility; physical trade is primarily destination-driven (North Africa, Europe).
- Consumer demand could shift upward if weather concerns impact new crop prospects.
📊 Fundamentals
- Arrivals: Rajkot’s 500 bags on the reporting day, with no signs of supply disruption.
- Price stability: Both India and Europe show minimal weekly change, except for marginal firming in Ukraine for selected lots.
- USDA and Indian government crop sown area numbers holding steady; recent data support adequate field-planted area for 2024/25.
- Global stocks remain comfortable, but China’s recent lower export offers reflect increased domestic stock availability.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India: Early monsoon progress is broadly favorable, with sufficient rainfall in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra—key millet-producing regions. No major drought stress currently observed.
- Ukraine: Weather stable; mild temperatures in Odesa benefit field development, promoting average yields for 2024/25.
- China: Mixed conditions near Beijing, with average rainfall but some forecasts of localized heat next week—watch for short-term stress in sensitive growing areas.
🌐 Global Production & Stock
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (kt) | 2024/25 Est. Ending Stocks (kt) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 11,000 | 1,850 |
| Nigeria | 5,700 | 785 |
| China | 2,000 | 225 |
| Ukraine | 250 | 35 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor for any sharp uptick in global weather volatility; hot/dry spells could quickly tighten supply and boost prices.
- Buyers should consider covering short-term needs at current stable levels, especially from Ukraine and China, given ongoing geopolitical and logistics risks.
- Producers advised to remain patient—little immediate upside, but maintain readiness if late-season weather risks emerge.
- Exporters can leverage firm internal market in India and Ukraine for targeted forward contracts to Europe and North Africa.
- Speculators: Watch demand-side policy signals and potential for surprise Chinese import moves.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Exchange | Forecast (per kg) | Currency | Market Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Rajkot/Deesa (mandis) | 1.41–1.44 | USD | Stable |
| Ukraine | Odesa (FOB/FCA) | 0.19–0.25 | EUR | Stable/Firm |
| China | Beijing (FOB) | 0.71–0.80 | EUR | Mildly Soft |
| Poland | Kiełczygłow (FCA) | 0.43–0.44 | EUR | Soft |
