Millet Market Stays Resilient Amid Steady Supply and Improved Weather

The global millet market has entered a phase of notable stability this week, with both domestic and international prices holding firm amid improving monsoon conditions in major producing regions. Reports from primary Indian markets such as Rajkot and Mehsana highlight unfluctuating arrivals and range-bound pricing, signaling equilibrium between supply and demand. This steadiness is further echoed by European and Asian market quotations, where key origins like Ukraine, Poland, and China continue to post flat or marginal price movements—an indication that neither supply shocks nor demand surges are currently at play.

Supporting this stable outlook are sustained weather improvements, minimizing disruptions to harvesting and transportation. While growers and traders might wish for bullish price action, analysts now anticipate limited volatility in the coming weeks, as arrivals align with historical trends and consumption remains steady in both food and feed sectors. The outlook is positive for buyers planning procurement and for sellers looking for strategic entry points. The overall sentiment points toward a balanced market, underscored by consistent pricing, healthy stocks, and a weather forecast that suggests minimal risk of supply interruptions.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Millet seeds	Ukraine	Odesa	inshell, yellow	98%	FCA	0.25	0.00	Stable
Millet kernels	Ukraine	Odesa	hulled, yellow	99%	FCA	1.20	0.00	Stable
Millet seeds	Ukraine	Odesa	inshell, red	98%	FCA	0.25	0.00	Stable
Millet seeds	Ukraine	Odesa	hulled, yellow		FOB	0.19	0.00	Stable
Millet kernels	Ukraine	Odesa	hulled, yellow	98%	FCA	0.40	0.00	Stable
Millet kernels	China	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.90%	FOB	0.82	+0.02	Firm
Millet kernels	China	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.95%	FOB	0.74	+0.02	Firm
Millet seeds	Poland	Kiełczygłow	hulled, yellow	99.95%	FCA	0.45	+0.01	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals in major Indian bajra (pearl millet) markets stable—Rajkot: 100 quintals, Mehsana: 100 quintals.
• Average spot prices in India: $382–$388 per ton (Rajkot), $376–$382 per ton (Mehsana), broader market: $392 per ton.
• EU supply remains steady with minor price upticks, especially in Poland.
• Chinese prices up slightly; suggests healthy export interest.
• Feed and food demand remains resilient; minimal speculative activity.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA/FAO Reports: No major changes in latest millet acreage or inventory estimates; global stocks remain adequate.
• Monsoon influence: Improved rainfall distribution in India supports strong yields and consistent arrivals.
• Speculative positioning: Minimal, reflecting balanced market conditions.
• Inventory situation: Sufficient pipeline stocks at exporter and trader levels.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Monsoon progression remains on track; no major heatwaves or drought events reported. Expect continued timely harvests in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat.
• Black Sea (Ukraine): Mild, dry conditions predicted for the next three days, supporting near-term logistics.
• China: Slight risk of late-season rains in northern provinces but no critical impacts expected on ongoing supply.
• Poland: Seasonally stable weather, favoring continued grain movement and handling.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Latest Production (2024/25, est.)	Ending Stocks	Major Export Role
India	11.2 mln tons	2.1 mln tons	Yes
Nigeria	6.0 mln tons	1.3 mln tons	No
China	2.2 mln tons	0.8 mln tons	Yes
Ukraine	0.4 mln tons	0.09 mln tons	Yes
Poland	0.12 mln tons	0.03 mln tons	Yes

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🌱 For buyers: Current pricing is stable and favorable for forward contracts. Build strategic inventories if you anticipate future adverse weather.
• 🌾 For sellers: Take advantage of steady pricing to schedule new sales or lock in supply agreements.
• 🔎 Monitor Indian and Chinese weather closely over the next two weeks—only severe weather could cause price volatility.
• 📦 Logistics managers should leverage the mild weather in Ukraine and Poland for smooth shipment scheduling.
• 💬 No strong bullish or bearish catalysts present; expect range-bound prices unless new crop or weather developments emerge.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Market	Product	Today	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Outlook
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds, inshell, yellow	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	Stable
Beijing (CN)	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	0.82	0.82	0.82	0.84	Firm/Upward
Kiełczygłow (PL)	Millet seeds, hulled, yellow	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.45	Stable
Rajkot (IN)	Bajra (pearl millet)	383	383	384	384	Stable