The global millet market is navigating a period of stability, with firm prices sustained across major producing regions despite a noticeable reduction in arrivals. Local market observations reveal that while the influx of Bajra (pearl millet) in Gujarat’s key trading centers has dipped—particularly in Deesa mandi—pricing remains resilient. This stability reflects a balanced scenario where strong demand from traders and the animal feed industry is met with tightening supply, resulting in steady to slightly higher prices. Simultaneously, European and Asian export markets continue to see minor upward adjustments, particularly for higher-purity and organic millet from Ukraine, Poland, and China. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, as buyers and sellers monitor the start of the kharif harvest in India and international crop developments. Weather remains a wildcard, especially with monsoon conditions in India and rainfall patterns in Eastern Europe and China shaping the next production cycle. The broad stability in mandis is echoed in European and Chinese export offers, pointing to a market that is well-supported—but alert to shifting fundamentals and macro drivers.
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📈 Prices: Millet Market Snapshot
| Origin | Type | Quality/Organic | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Last Updated | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA | Inshell, red | 98%, conv. | Odesa | FCA | 0.24 | 0.24 | 2025-08-08 | Stable |
| UA | Inshell, yellow | 98%, conv. | Odesa | FCA | 0.24 | 0.23 | 2025-08-08 | Slightly Bullish |
| UA | Hulled, yellow | 98%, conv. | Odesa | FCA | 0.40 | 0.40 | 2025-08-08 | Stable |
| UA | Hulled, yellow | 99%, organic | Odesa | FCA | 1.20 | 1.20 | 2025-08-08 | Stable |
| UA | Hulled, yellow | n/a, conv. | Odesa | FOB | 0.18 | 0.19 | 2025-08-07 | Bearish |
| PL | Hulled, yellow | 99.95%, conv. | Kiełczygłow | FCA | 0.44 | 0.45 | 2025-08-06 | Bearish |
| CN | Hulled, yellow | 99.90%, organic | Beijing | FOB | 0.77 | 0.75 | 2025-08-06 | Bullish |
| CN | Hulled, yellow | 99.95%, conv. | Beijing | FOB | 0.70 | 0.68 | 2025-08-06 | Bullish |
| PL | Raw, yellow | 98%, conv. | Kiełczygłow | FCA | 0.28 | 0.29 | 2025-07-18 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Key Drivers
- Arrivals: Gujarat mandis are seeing lower arrivals, particularly in Deesa, limiting available domestic stocks.
- Demand: Steady local and export demand, especially from feed manufacturers and traders, is keeping prices firm.
- Exports: Ukraine, Poland, and China remain leading exporters, with Ukrainian offers stable, and Chinese organic and conventional products showing slight price gains.
- Inventories: Indian stocks are tightening due to reduced arrivals; global inventories appear balanced, with no major surplus in current trading regions.
- Speculative Positioning: Minimal speculative buildup, with the market driven by underlying physical demand and new crop expectations.
📊 Fundamentals: Production, Trade, and Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Production (kt) | 2023/24 Exports (kt) | 2023/24 Stocks (kt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 10,750 | 90 | 1,900 |
| Nigeria | 5,800 | 20 | 1,000 |
| Ukraine | 430 | 370 | 70 |
| China | 2,100 | 180 | 300 |
| EU | 700 | 70 | 80 |
| Mali | 2,000 | 30 | 300 |
📆 Weather Outlook & Crop Implications
- India: Monsoon rains in key millet-producing states remain close to average; however, late onset or patchy rainfall in western and northern Gujarat may limit harvest potential if dryness persists in coming weeks.
- Ukraine & Poland: Weather is favorable for millet, with recent rains supporting field conditions. No major drought alerts.
- China: Summer conditions have been supportive; localized storms could pose a risk of lodging but acreage remains steady.
🔄 Market Insights vs Previous Report
- Indian arrivals have decreased further, whereas the last report suggested stability, tilting balances tighter in key mandis.
- International export offers from China are now trending marginally higher, particularly for organic millet, compared to last month’s flat outlook.
- Polish and Ukrainian prices have softened slightly on lower European demand and harvest progress.
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Procure millet stocks early, especially superior and organic grades, as tightening Indian and Chinese arrivals could boost prices.
- Monitor Indian monsoon progression for short-term price impact.
- Exporters should leverage current stable prices for forward sales, especially from Ukraine and China.
- End users may find value in Polish and Ukrainian conventional millet, given recent minor price dips.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Region | Product | Current Price | Forecast Trend | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deesa (IN) | Bajra, Good | $39.00/100kg | Stable-Slightly Up | Firm on arrivals drop |
| Khedbrahma (IN) | Bajra | $39.00/100kg | Stable | Supported by demand |
| Odesa (UA) | Millet, Inshell | €0.24/kg | Stable | Export support steady |
| Beijing (CN) | Millet, Hulled, Organic | €0.77/kg | Slightly Up | Organic product in demand |
| Kiełczygłow (PL) | Millet, Hulled | €0.44/kg | Stable-Down | Harvest pressure |
