Mixed Corn Market – Nearby Contract Recovers, New Crop Remains Under Pressure

➡ Mixed Corn Market – Nearby Contract Recovers, New Crop Remains Under Pressure

Corn futures ended mostly lower on Wednesday, with only the July delivery posting modest gains. Weather outlooks and expectations for export data and Ukraine trade policy continue to weigh on sentiment.

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The U.S. corn market remained divided between old crop stability and pressure on new crop contracts. Technical support helped July futures recover slightly, while longer maturities slipped further. In Europe, Euronext futures rose moderately across the curve, supported by technical buying and external market stabilisation.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
Jul 2025	445.50	+3.00
Sep 2025	427.25	−0.50
Dec 2025	440.50	±0.00

➡ July contracts held technical support, but later maturities remain weak.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	196.50	+2.25
Aug 2025	198.25	+2.00
Nov 2025	200.50	+2.00

➡ Paris contracts posted a strong recovery after recent losses.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌧 U.S. Weather Outlook:
  • A rain forecast from the Northern Plains to the eastern Corn Belt
  • May slow planting slightly, but overall crop conditions remain favourable
  • Market balancing between short-term moisture and long-term progress
• 🇪🇺 Ukraine Trade Uncertainty:
  • The EU may temporarily return to pre-war trade rules with Ukraine
  • Includes reinstating tariff quotas for corn
  • Decision needed by June 5 to avoid trade disruption
• 🛢 EIA Weekly Ethanol Report (May 9):
  • Production: ↓ 27,000 bpd → 993,000 bpd (lowest since Sept)
  • Stocks: ↑ 254,000 bbl → 25.445 million bbl
  • Refinery input: ↑ 43,000 bpd → 929,000 bpd
  • Exports dropped slightly → no short-term market impact
• 📦 USDA Export Sales (expected May 16):
  • Old crop: 0.9–1.5 million t
  • New crop: 350,000–600,000 t
  • Data will help gauge short-term demand resilience

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Corn Belt	Wet in the east	Slows planting, supports old crop
🇧🇷 Brazil	Harvest accelerating	An export window opens wider
🇺🇦 Ukraine	Mixed, slightly delayed	Policy decisions loom

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Mid-May)

Indicator	Value	Comment
U.S. Jul Corn Future	445.50 ct/bu	Stable after the 5-day decline
Euronext Jun Delivery	196.50 EUR/t	Recovery of 2.25 EUR
USDA Ending Stocks (2025/26)	1.8 Bbu	Below market expectations
Brazil Production Forecast (USDA)	130 Mt	Raised, but market cautious
Fund Net Position (CFTC)	13,893 long	Possibly now net short after WASDE

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• ⚖️ Short-term stabilisation is possible as July holds key levels
• 🌧 Weather may support old crop, but planting pace stays strong
• 📊 Export data could trigger a technical bounce or breakdown

Strategy:

• Stay cautious until export figures confirm demand trends
• Watch technical resistance at 448 ct/bu (CBOT Jul)
• Consider Paris’ long positioning if EU tariffs shift

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 16–18)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔁 Neutral	Awaiting export data and planting pace
Euronext	🔼 Slightly bullish	Oversold bounce + policy risk on Ukraine
Dalian	🔁 Stable	Demand steady, external pressure minimal

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