The mustard seed market is experiencing a phase of modest weakness as wholesale prices recorded a decline of about $0.30 per quintal, with the latest trades settling near $89.45 per quintal in local markets. This trend is largely attributed to a drop in purchases from oil mills, reflecting subdued demand for crushing. Despite this, other edible oils like groundnut, soybean, and cottonseed have retained stability, underscoring that the softness is specific to mustard seeds and not a broad phenomenon across the edible oil complex. Arrivals of mustard seeds slightly dipped to 446,200 bags, down from the previous day’s 450,000 bags, suggesting that supply remains ample but is not overwhelming the market.
Globally, the edible oil market presents a mixed picture, with some varieties under pressure due to ample supplies and lackluster consumption. The interplay of local demand slack, global edible oil trends, and regional weather conditions is setting a cautious tone for mustard traders. In major Indian centers like Jaipur and Delhi, daily pricing adjustments remain narrow, highlighting a balanced but nervous environment. Analysts are closely watching for shifts in mill procurement and consumer footfalls, as well as upcoming weather patterns that could impact future crops and supply tightness.
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📈 Prices
| Location | Product | Type | Purity | Price (EUR/ kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | Mustard seeds | Yellow, micro, sortex | 99.95% | 0.84 | +0.01 | Neutral/Bearish |
| New Delhi | Mustard seeds | Yellow, bold, sortex | 99.95% | 1.00 | +0.01 | Neutral |
| New Delhi | Mustard seeds | Brown, micro, sortex | 0.84 | +0.01 | Neutral | |
| New Delhi | Mustard seeds | Brown, bold, sortex | 99.95% | 0.77 | +0.01 | Soft |
| Jaipur | Mustard seed (spot) | — | — | ~90.25 USD/qtl | -0.30 | Bearish |
| Delhi | Mustard seed (spot) | — | — | 90.25–91.00 USD/qtl | -0.30 | Slightly Bearish |
| Jaipur | Mustard oil | — | — | 15.75–15.80 USD/10kg | 0.00 | Stable |
| Delhi | Mustard cake | — | — | 23.50–23.75 USD/qtl | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: 446,200 bags (84 kg each), slightly lower versus the previous day’s 450,000.
- Demand: Weak crushing mill offtake, reflecting subdued demand for mustard oil and cake despite stable prices in other edible oils.
- Global Edible Oils: Mixed trends, with sunflower and soybean oil remaining under price pressure; substitutes haven’t triggered a mustard-specific rally.
📊 Fundamentals
- Compared to the previous market report, prices have continued to edge lower—a sign of reluctant buying from processors and no external impetus from global edible oil markets.
- Fundamental support could emerge if mill demand revives or weather patterns threaten crop prospects.
- No significant government procurement or export movement reported at current levels.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Northern India (key region – Rajasthan, Haryana): Recent monsoon activity has been normal, with adequate soil moisture for existing crops.
- Forecast for next 7 days: Scattered showers with mostly moderate temperatures; unlikely to stress current standing crops or delay upcoming sowing operations.
- Exception: Any persistent heavy rainfall or significant deviation could alter the yield outlook later in the season.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Output (Est. Mio t) | 2022/23 Output (Mio t) | Ending Stocks (Est. Mio t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~11.5 | 10.7 | 1.8 |
| Canada | 0.9 | 0.88 | 0.15 |
| EU | 0.6 | 0.58 | 0.11 |
| China | 1.7 | 1.68 | 0.35 |
📌 Market Drivers
- Sluggish purchases by crushing mills dampening market sentiment.
- High supplies in the edible oil segment, with no broad-based rally to lift mustard seed.
- Stable weather is helping maintain reasonable supply expectations, putting pressure on prices.
- Speculative activity muted amid lack of fresh bullish triggers.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Producers: Consider forward contracts on stable pricing or wait for an uptick in crushers’ demand before large-volume selling.
- For Buyers: Short-term purchases can be made on dips; long-term buying is best staggered as price softness may persist.
- For Exporters: Monitor international procurement trends for soybean and sunflower oil which could trigger a spill-over buying in mustard if edible oil prices start climbing globally.
- Risk Factors: Any adverse weather or sudden government intervention could alter the price trajectory rapidly.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Product | Forecast Price (USD/qtl) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaipur | Mustard seed | 90.00–90.40 | Slightly Bearish |
| Delhi | Mustard seed | 90.00–90.60 | Bearing/Stable |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Yellow, bold, sortex | 1.00 EUR/kg | Flat |
