Mustard Seeds Market: Firm Momentum but Capped Upside Amid Supply Shifts

The mustard seeds market has witnessed notable price action in recent weeks, driven by a complex interplay of tightening supply, sustained processing activity, and robust—if somewhat price-sensitive—demand. Mustard oil prices have surged by approximately $20 per 100 kg, responding to a period of lower seed arrivals and shrinking stock levels at both retail and wholesale tiers. Mustard seed prices themselves have firmed to $960–$965 per tonne (up from $935–$940), underpinning this oil rally.

However, market experts broadly agree that further significant upside is limited in the near term. There is ongoing confidence in bulk seed availability, with daily seed crushing rates of 2.2–2.5 lakh bags and average daily consumption steady at 1,600 tonnes. Retail mustard oil prices, meanwhile, have remained relatively stable, signaling both market resilience and price resistance as consumer sensitivity rises. Although short-term corrections are possible, there is little sense of overextension—only a sharp change in the supply-demand equation could trigger substantial volatility at this stage.

📈 Mustard Market Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Purity	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Yellow, micro, sortex	IN	New Delhi	99.95%	FOB	0.83	0.83	2025-07-26	Stable
Yellow, bold, sortex	IN	New Delhi	99.95%	FOB	0.99	0.99	2025-07-26	Stable
Brown, micro, sortex	IN	New Delhi		FOB	0.83	0.83	2025-07-26	Stable
Brown, bold, sortex	IN	New Delhi	99.95%	FOB	0.76	0.76	2025-07-26	Stable
Sinapis alba	KZ	PL	99.5%	FCA	0.75	0.74	2025-07-18	Slightly Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Reduced Arrivals: Lower arrivals in major Indian mandis and tightening stock levels are behind the recent upward price action for both seeds and oil.
• Stable Crushing Activity: Processors maintain an average crushing rate of 2.2–2.5 lakh bags/day, supporting ongoing availability and cushioning against abrupt scarcity.
• Retail & Industrial Demand: Pickle manufacturing and steady consumption underpin current demand, but higher prices could curb retail buying if resistance persists.
• Muted Retail Price Movements: Retail oil prices are stable, signaling that end-user demand is not overheating.

📊 Fundamental Data & Global Stocks

• India: The world’s largest producer and consumer, current crop appears sufficient despite slower arrivals; stocks are managing but tighter than six months ago.
• CIS & EU: Kazakhstan (Sinapis alba) exports slightly firmer with prices edging up; EU inventories typical for the season, with no reported shortages.
• Importers: Demand from Southeast Asia and Middle East remains strong, but price rises could deter opportunistic buying.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Prospects

• India (Rajasthan, UP, MP): Monsoon progress has normalized after a patchy start, ensuring adequate soil moisture for late-planted mustard; crop stress risk minimal in near term.
• Kazakhstan & East Europe: Mild summer so far, with steady rainfall supporting seed development; harvest prospects remain positive.
• Short-term Weather: Forecasts show no immediate threat of severe heat or rainfall anomalies for main growing geographies through the next week.

🔍 Market Drivers & Speculation

• USDA & Indian Government Reports: No major revisions in acreage or yield projections this month; gradual supply tightness still evident but not acute.
• Speculative Buying: Most traders are neutral-to-cautious; little speculative length in current market, with profit-taking likely if prices test higher bands.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain watched positions for short-term stability: Prices expected stable/flattish for coming days.
• Processors and bulk buyers advised to cover short-term needs at current levels to avoid potential retail-driven price spikes.
• Watch for signs of consumer pullback—strong price resistance could trigger brief corrections ($5–$7/100 kg), especially if arrivals improve.
• Exporters targeting CIS/EU: Competitive offers possible as local prices stabilize, but watch FX and logistics costs.
• Pickle and food manufacturers should lock in procurement, as current price band offers good visibility and security.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Bias
New Delhi (IN)	Yellow, sortex	0.99	0.98–1.00	Neutral to Slightly Weak
New Delhi (IN)	Brown, sortex	0.83	0.82–0.84	Stable
Kiełczygłow (PL)	Sinapis alba	0.75	0.75–0.76	Slightly Firm

Mustard market participants should anticipate stable near-term pricing, keep an eye on physical arrivals, and stay alert for changes in consumption trends caused by price sensitivity, especially in retail channels.