The mustard seeds market is entering a period of notable dynamism, with strong buying activity emerging particularly in Northern India’s key markets. Recently, mustard oil prices experienced significant gains—climbing by $13–30 per tonne and reaching around $1,100 per quintal amid robust demand and sharply lower arrivals in spot markets. This rally was mirrored by mustard oil crystal, which traded higher at $1,270 per quintal. Supporting this bullish momentum are firm prices in key derivatives such as phenol and phenyl, further underscoring a broader firmness in the edible oil segment. Analysts confirm that limited availability, ongoing consumer demand, and reduced arrivals are among the primary forces sustaining the current price rise.
While the European market shows a fragmentary bearishness—Kazakhstan-origin Sinapis Alba recently dipped from €0.75/kg to €0.73/kg FCA Poland—Indian FOB prices for high-purity yellow and brown mustard seed varieties remain stable at last week’s levels, confirming the firm sentiment. With weather risks looming over the next harvest and inventories tightening, market participants should brace for continued volatility in the weeks ahead.
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Mustard seeds
yellow, micro, sortex
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FOB 0.85 €/kg
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yellow, bold, sortex
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FOB 1.01 €/kg
(from IN)
Mustard seeds
brown, micro, sortex
FOB 0.85 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Key Exchange Updates
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.85 | 0 | Firm |
| Yellow, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.01 | 0 | Stable/Firm |
| Brown, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.85 | 0 | Firm |
| Brown, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.78 | 0 | Stable |
| Sinapis Alba | KZ | Kiełczygłow, PL | FCA | 0.73 | -0.02 | Bearish/Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Reduced Arrivals: Spot markets in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan report sharply lower arrivals since early September.
- Strong Domestic Demand: Festival season and higher oil demand bolster buying interest in key Indian consuming states.
- Global Stocks: Decreasing stocks in India; relatively stable inventories in Eastern Europe after a good August harvest, but trade flows remain slow.
- Speculative Positioning: High open interest from local traders and millers expecting further upward price moves.
- Oil & Derivatives: Strength in mustard oil and related edible oils—backed by consumer demand and supply-side tightness—provide additional price support.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Indian Crop Outlook: Sowing acreage for the upcoming rabi season is under scrutiny following erratic monsoon distribution; early planting reports are mixed.
- Kazakh Supply: Exports remain price-sensitive with lower FOB and FCA offers amid ample local supply, but quality remains high for sinapis alba.
- Import Demand: Steady inquiries from EU processors for high-purity seed; however, import pace is moderate as buyers are watchful of further corrections.
| Country | 2023 Production (kt) | Stocks (kt) | Key Export Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~8,500 | Low/Declining | Domestic, Middle East |
| Russia | 950 | Stable | EU, China |
| Kazakhstan | 580 | Moderate | Europe |
| Canada | 140 | Declining | US, Japan |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- India North-West: Recent patchy showers have improved late-rabi soil moisture but some areas remain dry; pre-monsoon precipitation was below normal in Rajasthan, potentially reducing optimal planting windows.
- Kazakhstan: Cooler-than-normal September and scattered light rains; harvest largely complete, seed quality is good. Weather outlook is largely neutral for near-term marketing.
- Europe: Central/Eastern Europe expects mild, slightly wetter-than-average start to October, posing little risk to stocks in storage.
📌 Trading Outlook & Key Takeaways
- Expect firm-to-higher prices for Indian mustard seeds, with spot market momentum carrying forward for the next two weeks.
- Short-to-medium term supply tightness and strong oil demand should keep Indian prices well-supported above €0.85/kg FOB for top quality.
- European/Kazakh seed prices may see further small corrections if buyers remain on sidelines; consider opportunistic coverage for Sinapis Alba below €0.73/kg FCA.
- Monitor Indian government updates and sowing progress for Rabi 2024 as a leading indicator for raw seed and oil trends.
- Hedgers should maintain firm long positions in the Indian market, with trailing stops in place for any sharp reversals.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Type | Price (€/kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi, IN | Yellow, micro/bold, sortex | 0.85–1.01 | ↗️ Firm to higher |
| Kiełczygłow, PL | Sinapis Alba | 0.72–0.73 | ↘️ Slightly weak |
| EU/Import Ports | Yellow/brown | 0.83–0.87 (est.) | ➡️ Steady |
