The mustard seeds market is in the midst of a pronounced rally, driven by a sharp contraction in arrivals across key producing regions and heightened risk aversion in global edible oil trade routes. With arrivals in major Indian states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh down by over a third compared to last year, traders are scrambling to secure supplies, resulting in a steady price climb. The latest estimates peg India’s total mustard production at around 10.5 million metric tons, a notable decline from the earlier forecast of 11.02 million tons. This shortfall is being felt acutely in spot markets, where daily arrivals have slumped from 625,000 to 400,000 bags in Rajasthan’s prime belts. Compounding the bullish mood, edible oil imports from Malaysia and other origins have slowed due to shipping risks, prompting traders and processors to build up stocks. As a result, both mustard seed and oil prices are experiencing upward momentum, with mustard oil prices in the Niwai–Tonk region already up to USD 1.64/kg and expected to climb further by month-end. With tightening supplies, robust stockpiling, and no immediate relief in sight, the market outlook remains bullish for the weeks ahead.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Mustard seeds
sinapis alba
99,5%
FCA 0.79 €/kg
(from PL)
Mustard seeds
yellow, micro, sortex
99.95%
FOB 0.83 €/kg
(from IN)
Mustard seeds
yellow, bold, sortex
99.95%
FOB 0.98 €/kg
(from IN)
Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mustard seeds | sinapis alba | KZ | Kiełczygłow, PL | FCA | 0.77 | 0.80 | 2025-05-22 | Bearish (slight correction) |
| Mustard seeds | yellow, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 0.83 | 0.83 | 2025-05-16 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | yellow, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 0.98 | 0.98 | 2025-05-16 | Stable/Strong |
| Mustard seeds | brown, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 0.82 | 0.82 | 2025-05-16 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | brown, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 0.75 | 0.75 | 2025-05-16 | Stable |
Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Down 34% YoY across Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat, UP; Rajasthan arrivals at 400,000 bags/day vs 625,000 last year.
- Production: Latest estimate 10.5 MMT vs initial 11.02 MMT; shortfall of ~0.5 MMT.
- Stockpiling: Traders and processors increasing inventories amid import uncertainty.
- Demand: Robust, with edible oil imports from Malaysia and others down due to shipping risks, increasing local demand for mustard oil.
Fundamentals
- Spot Market Prices: Mustard at Jaipur up from USD 75.60 to USD 79.20/quintal this month; likely to reach USD 84 by June.
- Mustard Oil: Niwai–Tonk region at USD 1.63–1.64/kg, expected to reach USD 1.68/kg by month-end.
- Global Comparison: Indian mustard prices remain competitive but are seeing a sharper increase relative to other major origins.
- Speculative Positioning: Bullish, with traders building stocks and hedging against further supply shocks.
Weather Outlook
- Rajasthan & MP: Current weather is largely dry and hot, favorable for late harvest but may stress late-planted crops if heat intensifies.
- Gujarat & UP: No major rain disruptions expected; moisture levels adequate for current crop stage.
- Forecast Impact: Weather unlikely to improve arrivals in the short term; risk of heatwaves could further tighten supplies if realized.
Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Production (MMT) | 2023 Production (MMT) | Ending Stocks (MMT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 10.5 | 11.1 | 2.1 | Arrivals sharply down YoY |
| Canada | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.06 | Stable exports |
| EU | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.09 | Steady demand |
Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Hold stocks where possible; further price increases likely before new crop arrivals.
- Traders: Build inventory on dips; supply tightness and import risks support a bullish stance.
- Processors: Secure forward contracts for both seeds and oil as further price hikes are probable.
- Exporters: Take advantage of competitive Indian prices now; global buyers may shift sourcing as local prices rise.
- Importers: Monitor edible oil shipment routes and diversify sources to mitigate risk.
3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (USD/quintal) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/quintal) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaipur (Spot) | 79.20 | 81.00 – 82.00 |  Bullish |
| Niwai–Tonk–Kota (42% oil) | 79.20 | 81.50 – 83.00 | Bullish |
| Mustard Oil (Niwai–Tonk) | 1.63 – 1.64/kg | 1.65 – 1.68/kg | Bullish |