Mustard Seeds Market: Limited Arrivals and Firm Demand Drive Upward Price Momentum

The mustard seeds market is currently experiencing robust price action amid a combination of limited arrivals and sustained demand across domestic edible oil segments. This week, key wholesale markets saw a notable uptick in mustard seed and mustard oil valuations, supported by constrained supply and intensified procurement from oil mills and dairy sectors. In prominent locations like Jaipur, mustard seed prices climbed to $85.56 per 10 kg, while refined mustard oil saw quotes at $114.00 per 10 kg. These advances coincide with arrivals remaining capped at 700,000–750,000 bags, a factor that has injected firmness into local quotations.

Regional data from New Delhi underlines this trend: yellow, micro, sortex mustard seeds with 99.95% purity now command €0.85/kg, up from €0.83; bold types reached €1.01/kg, while brown segregations also advanced marginally. International parity is further highlighted by the stable performance of oil counterparts such as Malaysian CPO and Chicago-traded soybean oil. Rapidly rising demand from both food and feed sectors, especially strong interest from the dairy feed segment, is amplifying the market’s bullish undertone. As traders and processors adapt to these shifts, the focus now turns to upcoming weather patterns, crop procurement policy evolution, and speculative positioning—factors that will shape market sentiment and trading strategies in the months ahead.

📈 Mustard Seeds Price Snapshot

Type	Purity	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (€/kg)	Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Yellow, micro, sortex	99.95%	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	+0.02	2025-08-02	Firm
Yellow, bold, sortex	99.95%	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.01	+0.02	2025-08-02	Firm
Brown, micro, sortex	99.95%	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	+0.02	2025-08-02	Stable
Brown, bold, sortex	99.95%	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.78	+0.02	2025-08-02	Stable
Sinapis alba	99.5%	Kazakhstan	Kiełczygłow, PL	FCA	0.75	+0.01	2025-07-18	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Indian arrivals remain subdued at 700,000–750,000 bags, tightening domestic availability and bolstering price resilience.
• Demand for mustard oil and cake continues to rise, notably from oil processors and dairy feed producers.
• Cottonseed oil and other competing vegetable oils show similar firming patterns on supply constraints in major trade hubs.
• Rice bran oil and palm oil remain under pressure or stable, offering little relief to buyers shifting to mustard oil as a substitute.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• USDA & Acreage: No significant expansion in mustard acreage reported; supply growth constrained.
• Trader Positions: Spot buying remains strong; little sign of speculative shorting, lending strength to short- and medium-term values.
• Domestic Processing Margins: Sustained by high feed and edible oil demand, reflective in elevated cake and oil prices.
• Stock Levels: Inventories are declining, particularly in India, amid slower new arrivals.
• International Markets: Malaysian CPO at $697/t and Chicago soybean oil at $804/t support overall oilseed sentiment.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• Northwest India (Rajasthan, Haryana): Monsoon conditions have been favorable overall, though some pockets report below-normal precipitation.
• Kazakhstan, Eastern Europe: Mostly stable weather with mild temperatures, risk of local dryness persists but no widespread stress reported yet.
• Forecast: Next 7 days project normal rainfall for most Indian mustard-growing areas, supporting crop health but not significantly boosting late arrivals.

📉 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Estimate (Mt)	2023/24 (Mt)	Stock Trend
India	~9.6*	9.7	Declining
EU (France, Germany, Poland)	~1.2	1.3	Stable
Canada	~0.13	0.15	Lower
Kazakhstan	~0.21	0.22	Stable

*Unofficial estimate, pending final harvest results.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain a bullish-to-neutral bias in the near term amid persistently limited arrivals and firm spot demand.
• Procurement agencies and traders advised to cover forward needs early, especially before festive season demand peaks.
• Dairies and feed users should lock in cake supplies, as prices are likely to remain elevated on strong offtake.
• Monitor weather developments in key producing states; any late season weather stress could tighten supplies further.
• Watch for policy changes or new export trade agreements, especially involving India and Central Asian origins, which could impact flows.

🔮 3-Day Regional Mustard Seeds Price Forecast

Location	Type	Today	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
New Delhi (IN)	Yellow, Micro	€0.85	€0.86	€0.86	€0.87
New Delhi (IN)	Yellow, Bold	€1.01	€1.01	€1.02	€1.02
Kiełczygłow (PL)	Sinapis Alba	€0.75	€0.75	€0.76	€0.76

Note: Forecast assumes stable weather and ongoing supply-demand trends.