Mustard Seeds Market: Prices Ease on Weak Mill Demand, Ample Supply Keeps Sentiment Soft

Indian mustard seed markets have softened further as major trading hubs report continued declines in prices, led by weak procurement from oil mills and subdued consumer demand. The recent downturn—approximately $6 per quintal week-on-week—is a direct result of cautious buying by processors who are not in a hurry, thanks to sufficient inventory and steady daily arrivals. Ex-mandi prices in key North Indian centers such as Jaipur dropped to $2,110 per quintal from $2,116 last week, while parallel softness was noted in oil products and byproducts alike. Mustard oil wholesale prices in Delhi have dipped further to $1,894 per quintal, exerting downward pressure on the seed market as a whole. Mills and refiners cite slack demand for mustard oil as a principal driver, and even the feed sector has felt the pinch, with mustard cake prices falling from $418–$420 per quintal to $405–$410. Market arrivals remain robust around the 50,000–55,000 bag daily mark, keeping supply ample and capping any potential short-term rallies. Traders and analysts suggest that unless there is a seasonal boost from festive or export demand, mustard seed prices are likely to hover at current levels or drift fractionally lower in the near term. Weather conditions remain mostly favorable, further supporting strong arrival data.

📈 Key Market Prices and Sentiment

Market/Exchange	USD/Quintal	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Jaipur	$2,110	-0.3%	Bearish
Alwar	$2,090	–	Bearish
Tonk	$2,075	–	Bearish
Sriganganagar	$2,120	–	Neutral
Mustard Oil (Delhi)	$1,894	-1.3%	Bearish
Mustard Cake	$405–$410	-2.5%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Trends

• The primary driver of the current market is weak purchasing by oil mills and refiners.
• Arrivals remain robust: Rajasthan (25,000 bags), Uttar Pradesh (8,000), Madhya Pradesh (5,000), Punjab & Haryana (6,000), others (10,000 bags).
• Cake and oil demand are both notably sluggish; wholesale trading activity remains muted.
• Competition from alternative edible oils remains steady, capping potential upside.

📊 Fundamentals (Spot Offers Europe & India)

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	EUR/kg	Prev. Price	Date
Yellow, micro, sortex	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	0.83	2025-08-02
Yellow, bold, sortex	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.01	0.99	2025-08-02
Brown, micro, sortex	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	0.83	2025-08-02
Brown, bold, sortex	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.78	0.76	2025-08-02
Sinapis alba	Kazakhstan	Kiełczygłow, PL	FCA	0.75	0.74	2025-07-18

📋 Market Drivers & External Influences

• Procurement activity: Oil mills remain cautious, running down inventories before restocking.
• Demand status: Weak for both oil and cake, with no festive or export trigger seen yet.
• Arrival stability: No sign of decline in arrivals, maintaining pressure on prices.
• Competitive landscape: Stable prices in alternative oils keep mustard’s upside in check.
• Speculative Action: Low speculative interest with a wait-and-watch approach.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Major Mustard Regions

• Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab report normal monsoon rainfall, supporting good soil moisture levels.
• No major crop-threatening events reported; sowing progress remains normal to above normal.
• Favorable weather outlook expected to keep arrivals healthy in coming weeks, barring any unexpected anomalies.
• Western and northern belt temperatures are seasonally moderate; no excessive heat stress anticipated for maturing crops.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Update

• India leads global mustard production; EU, Canada, and Ukraine are key exporters.
• Global inventory positions stable with no major disruption; last year’s carryover stocks remain comfortable.
• No significant shortfalls reported from any major exporting country; exports remain driven by steady trade contracts.

👁️‍🗨️ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Price trend remains under mild bearish bias amid slack domestic demand and ample arrivals.
• Medium-term: Watch for festive/seasonal demand or any abrupt rise in export orders as potential inflection points.
• Processors: Consider contracting only for immediate needs; refrain from stock-piling.
• Farmers: Prefer selling in tranches as further declines are possible if arrivals persist at current pace.
• Exporters: Monitor FOB competitiveness against Canadian/EU offers; explore short-term opportunities in price-sensitive Asian markets.
• Traders: Avoid aggressive long bets until clear demand recovery is visible.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Today	Day 2	Day 3	Trend
Jaipur	$2,110	$2,105	$2,100	Slightly lower
Delhi (oil)	$1,894	$1,892	$1,890	Slightly lower
New Delhi (FOB, yellow)	€0.85/kg	€0.85/kg	€0.84/kg	Sideways/weaker