The global mustard seeds market is navigating a phase of softening prices, with spot rates dipping by approximately $3 per quintal over the past week, mainly due to subdued demand from oil mills and increased selling pressure from stockists. However, agricultural analysts suggest that a further major price decline appears improbable in the near term. In benchmark markets across Rajasthan, mustard seed prices are currently oscillating between $80 and $84 per quintal, slightly below last week’s levels. This mild weakness can be attributed to tepid crushing activity, leading to restrained buying by mills, while recent global trends in edible oils — notably persistent softness in palm and soybean oil prices — continue to weigh on the upside potential for mustard oil.
Despite the subdued mill demand, farmer stockholding behavior and only moderate crop arrivals provide a cushion against sharp falls, as private stocks are not burdensome. The market’s medium-term outlook is supported by projections of a slightly lower Indian production this season, which may buffer the downside. Consequently, market participants expect prices to remain range-bound and relatively steady, fluctuating between $78 and $81 per quintal in the forthcoming weeks, with limited downside risk.
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Mustard seeds
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📈 Prices: Latest Mustard Seed Market Quotes
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mustard seeds | Sinapis alba, 99.5% | Kazakhstan | Kiełczygłow, PL | FCA | 0.73 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Mustard seeds | Yellow, micro, sortex 99.95% | India | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 0.85 | +0.01 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | Yellow, bold, sortex 99.95% | India | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 1.01 | +0.01 | Mildly Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Crushing Activity: Limited operations at oil mills have subdued spot demand.
- Stockist Selling: Increased sales from traders applying slight downward pressure.
- Farmer Stockholding: Farmers reluctant to sell aggressively, awaiting better prices.
- Arrivals: Rajasthan market arrivals remain steady yet moderate (e.g., Alwar: 5,000 bags).
- Global Influence: Weakness in international palm and soybean oil prices caps upside.
- Crop Outlook: India’s production for 2024/25 is forecast marginally lower, which may lend medium-term support.
📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Data
| Country | 2024/25 Projected Production (kt) | 2024/25 End Stocks (kt) | Major Importers | Major Exporters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 8,500 | 490 | Bangladesh, Nepal | Low exports, mostly domestic use |
| Canada | 170 | 70 | US, EU | EU, US |
| Kazakhstan | 150 | 20 | EU, China | EU, China |
Note: Figures are indicative and subject to final official estimates.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- India (Rajasthan, UP, MP): Recent dry spells have moderated after pre-monsoon showers; sowing conditions are fair, but late-season rains could affect yields if excessive.
- Canada & Kazakhstan: Mild to moderate temperatures with favorable soil moisture; no major heat stress reported. Few local thunderstorms might cause spot disruptions but no large-scale losses anticipated.
Impact: Overall weather outlook is benign for major producers, supporting the expectation of steady supply, though India’s final output remains dependent on the remaining rainfall pattern.
📈 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect prices to trade in a narrow band ($78–$81/quintal) with downside limited by steady arrivals and restrained farmer selling.
- Bullish factors: Slightly lower Indian crop, farmer stockholding, potential bounce if edible oil complex firms up globally.
- Bearish factors: Slow mill demand, subdued export interest, global weakness in competing oils (palm, soybean).
- Buyers: Monitor for minor price dips to cover short-term requirements; inventory build-up may be considered with an eye on crop progress and edible oil trends.
- Sellers: Consider incremental selling on any rally; hold back significant sales pending signs of market recovery.
- Speculators: Range-bound trading is likely; risk-reward favors cautious positioning given limited volatility.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (USD/quintal) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/quintal) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rajasthan Benchmark | 82 | 78–81 | -1 to -4 |
| New Delhi (FOB) | 100 | 99–101 | ±1 |
| Poland (FCA) | 73 (EUR/t) | 73–74 (EUR/t) | Stable to +1 |
Note: Forecast based on current arrival trends, weather outlook, and trading sentiment.