Mustard

Mustard Seeds Market: Prices Face Headwinds but Remain Resilient Amid Weak Demand

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The global mustard seeds market is navigating a phase of softening prices, with spot rates dipping by approximately $3 per quintal over the past week, mainly due to subdued demand from oil mills and increased selling pressure from stockists. However, agricultural analysts suggest that a further major price decline appears improbable in the near term. In benchmark markets across Rajasthan, mustard seed prices are currently oscillating between $80 and $84 per quintal, slightly below last week’s levels. This mild weakness can be attributed to tepid crushing activity, leading to restrained buying by mills, while recent global trends in edible oils — notably persistent softness in palm and soybean oil prices — continue to weigh on the upside potential for mustard oil.

Despite the subdued mill demand, farmer stockholding behavior and only moderate crop arrivals provide a cushion against sharp falls, as private stocks are not burdensome. The market’s medium-term outlook is supported by projections of a slightly lower Indian production this season, which may buffer the downside. Consequently, market participants expect prices to remain range-bound and relatively steady, fluctuating between $78 and $81 per quintal in the forthcoming weeks, with limited downside risk.

📈 Prices: Latest Mustard Seed Market Quotes

Product Type Origin Location Delivery Price (EUR/kg) Weekly Change Market Sentiment
Mustard seeds Sinapis alba, 99.5% Kazakhstan Kiełczygłow, PL FCA 0.73 -0.02 Bearish
Mustard seeds Yellow, micro, sortex 99.95% India New Delhi, IN FOB 0.85 +0.01 Stable
Mustard seeds Yellow, bold, sortex 99.95% India New Delhi, IN FOB 1.01 +0.01 Mildly Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

  • Crushing Activity: Limited operations at oil mills have subdued spot demand.
  • Stockist Selling: Increased sales from traders applying slight downward pressure.
  • Farmer Stockholding: Farmers reluctant to sell aggressively, awaiting better prices.
  • Arrivals: Rajasthan market arrivals remain steady yet moderate (e.g., Alwar: 5,000 bags).
  • Global Influence: Weakness in international palm and soybean oil prices caps upside.
  • Crop Outlook: India’s production for 2024/25 is forecast marginally lower, which may lend medium-term support.

📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Data

Country 2024/25 Projected Production (kt) 2024/25 End Stocks (kt) Major Importers Major Exporters
India 8,500 490 Bangladesh, Nepal Low exports, mostly domestic use
Canada 170 70 US, EU EU, US
Kazakhstan 150 20 EU, China EU, China

Note: Figures are indicative and subject to final official estimates.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

  • India (Rajasthan, UP, MP): Recent dry spells have moderated after pre-monsoon showers; sowing conditions are fair, but late-season rains could affect yields if excessive.
  • Canada & Kazakhstan: Mild to moderate temperatures with favorable soil moisture; no major heat stress reported. Few local thunderstorms might cause spot disruptions but no large-scale losses anticipated.

Impact: Overall weather outlook is benign for major producers, supporting the expectation of steady supply, though India’s final output remains dependent on the remaining rainfall pattern.

📈 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • Expect prices to trade in a narrow band ($78–$81/quintal) with downside limited by steady arrivals and restrained farmer selling.
  • Bullish factors: Slightly lower Indian crop, farmer stockholding, potential bounce if edible oil complex firms up globally.
  • Bearish factors: Slow mill demand, subdued export interest, global weakness in competing oils (palm, soybean).
  • Buyers: Monitor for minor price dips to cover short-term requirements; inventory build-up may be considered with an eye on crop progress and edible oil trends.
  • Sellers: Consider incremental selling on any rally; hold back significant sales pending signs of market recovery.
  • Speculators: Range-bound trading is likely; risk-reward favors cautious positioning given limited volatility.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market Current Price (USD/quintal) 3-Day Forecast (USD/quintal) Change
Rajasthan Benchmark 82 78–81 -1 to -4
New Delhi (FOB) 100 99–101 ±1
Poland (FCA) 73 (EUR/t) 73–74 (EUR/t) Stable to +1

Note: Forecast based on current arrival trends, weather outlook, and trading sentiment.