The mustard seeds market is displaying a notable steadiness, with prices largely unchanged across major Indian markets despite a minor pullback in daily arrivals. On Saturday, conditioned mustard in Jaipur held firm at 80.10 USD per quintal, mirroring the week’s restrained purchasing activity by oil mills. Branded processors are maintaining procurement rates, signaling little inclination towards aggressive buying. The broader edible oil complex has witnessed some support from the recent uptick in international prices, yet the sentiment among local traders remains subdued. Market consensus suggests any substantial price rally will be capped by higher inventory forecasts out of Malaysia and Indonesia, the global palm oil leaders. Domestic mustard oil prices have likewise been largely unmoved, reflecting a market balanced between sluggish arrivals and robust yet stable demand. Importantly, farmers and traders hold significant carryover stocks, indicating a steady flow of supplies over the coming weeks.
Outlook for the coming weeks will focus on key global cues—crude oil trends, shifts in the US biodiesel mandate, and geopolitical negotiations, especially US-China trade. These variables could affect oilseed complexes worldwide, but near-term volatility for mustard seeds appears limited. Consumption seasonality is sustaining domestic demand for mustard oil, with Kachi Ghani oil prices remaining flat in primary consuming centers. Given the mixed international signals and healthy local stock holding, market participants are adopting a watch-and-wait posture, with only minimal price adjustments expected in the short term.
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📈 Prices
| Market/Type | Latest Price | Previous Price | Change | Currency | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaipur (Conditioned) | 80.10 | 80.10 | 0.00 | USD/quintal | 2025-06-07 |
| New Delhi – Yellow, micro, sortex | 0.84 | 0.85 | -0.01 | USD/kg (FOB) | 2025-06-06 |
| New Delhi – Yellow, bold, sortex | 0.99 | 1.00 | -0.01 | USD/kg (FOB) | 2025-06-06 |
| New Delhi – Brown, micro, sortex | 0.83 | 0.84 | -0.01 | USD/kg (FOB) | 2025-06-06 |
| New Delhi – Brown, bold, sortex | 0.76 | 0.77 | -0.01 | USD/kg (FOB) | 2025-06-06 |
| Kiełczygłow (PL, Sinapis alba) | 0.79 | 0.77 | +0.02 | USD/kg (FCA) | 2025-05-28 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Nationwide daily arrivals of mustard seeds fell to 425,000 bags from 500,000 bags previously—a sign of moderate activity rather than scarcity.
- Stock Position: Traders and producers still hold significant stocks, indicating arrivals can continue without immediate tightness.
- Demand: Domestic demand for mustard oil remains strong due to the ongoing consumption cycle, supporting prices even as global edible oil markets show volatility.
- Oil Mill Activity: Mills are maintaining steady but limited procurement, cautious about building inventory at current price levels.
📊 Fundamentals
- Global Market Influence: Palm oil output estimates for Malaysia and Indonesia have risen, boosting global edible oil inventories and potentially capping price gains in related oilseeds, including mustard.
- Mustard Oil Prices: Kachi Ghani mustard oil stayed steady:
- Adampur: 16.74–16.80 USD/10 kg
- Bharatpur Mandi: 16.80–16.92 USD/10 kg
- Kolkata: 17.64 USD/10 kg
- Global Policy/Trade Watch: Potential shifts in the US biodiesel policy, developments in crude oil markets, and US-China trade talks can quickly alter oilseed complex dynamics.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India: The northwestern belt (Rajasthan, Haryana, U.P.) faces normal to slightly above-normal pre-monsoon temperatures, favorable for ongoing harvest management and storage; no major extremes reported for the short-term.
- Global: Key Canadian and European growing regions remain in seasonally normal patterns, while pockets of dryness in Kazakhstan could limit expansion for Sinapis alba crops. Overall, weather is currently viewed as neutral to slightly supportive for Indian mustard supplies.
🌍 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production Estimate (‘000 MT) | Stocks (‘000 MT) | Notable Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 11,700 | 2,100 | Largest global producer and consumer; robust stock holding |
| Canada | 210 | 30 | Key for brown/yellow export to EU, stable outlook |
| Russia | 170 | 15 | Growing import destination for South Asia |
| Kazakhstan | 230 | 20 | Increasing Sinapis alba exports to EU |
| EU | 150 | 15 | Major in specialty mustard, reliant on imports |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📍 Producers/Farmers: Continue regular arrivals to market; maintain flexibility for storage given stable prices and steady demand.
- 📍 Buyers/Oil Mills: Pursue hand-to-mouth buying given limited upside; monitor global edible oil inventories, especially for palm and soy.
- 📍 Exporters: Watch for arbitrage opportunities out of India and Kazakhstan, especially into the EU regarding Sinapis alba.
- 📍 Traders: Maintain neutral-to-light long positions; significant rally potential appears capped in the near term barring weather or policy shocks.
- 📍 All participants: Monitor developments in global biofuel policies and US-China trade for cross-commodity price impacts.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Today | +1 Day | +2 Days | +3 Days | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaipur (Conditioned) | 80.10 | 80.00-80.20 | 79.90-80.20 | 79.85-80.25 | USD/quintal |
| New Delhi – Yellow, micro, sortex | 0.84 | 0.83-0.85 | 0.83-0.85 | 0.82-0.86 | USD/kg |
| Kiełczygłow (PL, Sinapis alba) | 0.79 | 0.78-0.80 | 0.78-0.80 | 0.78-0.80 | USD/kg |
