Mustard oil are entering a period of heightened volatility, with the Indian market at the epicenter of a remarkable price rally. In just the last week, sharp reductions in arrivals and intense buying from stockists have caused prices to surge, especially in key centers like Jaipur. The latest data shows mustard oil rates climbing to $84.70–$85.90 per 100 kg—a strong signal of supply constraints in play. Downstream, the effects are even more pronounced: crude mustard oil in Rajasthan touched $131.90 per 100 kg and refined grades reached up to $166.80 per 100 kg.
The rally is not just about physical scarcity. With India heading into a festive period, consumption is on the rise, and consumers and traders alike fear further disruptions in availability. These market dynamics place mustard oil as the hottest segment in India’s edible oil market. As arrivals remain low, and with continued seasonal consumption, the likelihood of further price increases cannot be dismissed. The current conditions are drawing renewed attention to supply chain resilience and weather trends, both inside India and across international exporters, as market participants seek clarity on when—and if—the supply-demand balance will ease.
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FOB 0.83 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow, Micro, Sortex | India | New Delhi | FOB | 0.83 | 0.82 | +1.2% | Bullish |
| Yellow, Bold, Sortex | India | New Delhi | FOB | 0.98 | 0.97 | +1.0% | Bullish |
| Brown, Micro, Sortex | India | New Delhi | FOB | 0.83 | 0.82 | +1.2% | Bullish |
| Brown, Bold, Sortex | India | New Delhi | FOB | 0.76 | 0.75 | +1.3% | Bullish |
| Sinapis Alba | Kazakhstan | Kiełczygłow (PL) | FCA | 0.74 | 0.79 | -6.3% | Bearish (CIS) |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Market arrivals have dropped substantially, especially in Rajasthan and Jaipur, causing supply tightness.
- Stockist Buying: Strong demand from stockists and processors intensified due to festival season and supply shortage fears.
- Global Trade: Indian domestic prices are significantly above those in the CIS (Kazakhstan, Poland) markets, indicating India-driven bullishness.
- International: Demand from Europe and North Africa remains moderate but stable, with no major export spikes.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA & Acreage: No major change in global sown area, but Indian acreage is stagnant due to delayed monsoon onset.
- Inventories: Domestic stocks are running low, with recent government procurement falling short of targets as arrivals dwindle.
- Speculative Positioning: Futures open interest has increased, indicating strong speculative appetite and expectation of further price gains.
- Price Parity: Indian prices outpace global benchmarks, improving export parity for origins like the CIS even as their prices correct lower.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India (Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh): Recent erratic monsoon patterns have resulted in below-average rainfall in key growing belts; soil moisture deficits risk impacting late crop development and next season’s sowing intention.
- Kazakhstan & Eastern Europe: Frequent rains have improved soil conditions, boosting expectations for a strong harvest, explaining weaker prices in those origins.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (kt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (kt) | Year-on-Year Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 11,100 | 1,350 | -5% |
| Canada | 235 | 55 | -4% |
| Kazakhstan | 390 | 83 | +12% |
| EU27 | 490 | 94 | -2% |
| China | 820 | 45 | -3% |
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Processors: Consider building short-term stocks if not already covered, as prices may firm further until arrivals and new crop forecasts improve.
- For Exporters (CIS/EU): Monitor Indian import demand; current price differentials favor export sales to India and North Africa.
- For Speculators: Bullish bias justified as long as Indian arrivals remain low—however, watch for government intervention or abrupt import duty changes.
- For End Users: Evaluate forward coverage for Q3 and early Q4 to guard against further price escalation, especially with festival-driven demand peaking.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Trend | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indian FOB (New Delhi) | 0.83–0.98 | ⏫ +1.0–1.5% | Strongly Bullish |
| Kazakhstan FCA (Poland) | 0.74 | ⏬ -1.0% | Soft / Stable |
| EU Spot | 0.92 (est.) | ➡ Flat | Neutral |
