The mustard seeds market stands in a holding pattern as July nears its end. Domestic prices in India’s main wholesale centers—Jaipur, Kolkata, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi—remained flat, sustaining at levels marginally higher than last month, despite an uptick in international mustard oil prices. Yet, a pronounced reluctance among oil mills, stemming from robust stockpiles above 2.1 million tons, muted trade enthusiasm and capped any upward price momentum. With traders reporting sluggish interest from both processors and retail consumers, this phase translates into a highly range-bound market scenario.
Export flows have also taken a hit: India’s mustard oil shipments are projected to shrink roughly 5% year-on-year, and international buyers are responding to a globally abundant edible oils landscape, heightened by intensified competition from soy and palm segments. Currently, weather in key North Indian belt is favorable, allowing for prompt arrivals—India registered robust receipts of over 82,000 tons across 42 mandis. Nonetheless, with edible oil imports still brisk and soft overseas benchmarks (from CBOT soy oil and Malaysian palm oil), traders expect little change unless rainfall patterns or policy shifts prompt new speculative positioning. As fundamentals remain stacked towards supply, only a sustained, robust pickup in oil mill demand may meaningfully lift prices in the medium term.
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📈 Prices
| Location | Price (USD/quintal) | Price (EUR/kg, FOB) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaipur (IN) | 89.96 | 0.83 – 0.99 (New Delhi, yellow) | 0% | Neutral/Soft |
| Kolkata (IN) | 92.39 | – | 0% | Neutral |
| Punjab/Haryana (IN) | 86.62 – 87.14 | – | 0% | Soft |
| Delhi (IN) | 87.14 – 88.42 (10kg) | – | 0% | Neutral |
| Gujarat (IN, premium) | 87.02 – 87.14 (10kg) | – | 0% | Premium/Steady |
| New Delhi (IN, export FOB) | – | 0.76 – 0.99 | 0% | Stable |
| Kiełczygłow (PL, KZ origin, FCA) | – | 0.75 (+1.3% w/w) | +0.01 | Firming (EU) |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: 82,025 tons across 42 Indian centers—robust for late July.
- Mustard oil stocks (India): Over 2.1 million tons, reinforcing price resistance.
- Oil mill demand: Limited, with purchases subdued due to large inventories.
- Exports: FY2025 forecast at 4.23 million tons (vs 4.46 million in FY2024), reflecting weak international demand.
- Imports: Expected at 1.5–1.6 million tons in July (June: 1.67 mt), mainly palm and soy oils.
- Retail Demand: Modest, especially in southern and eastern India.
📊 Fundamentals & Drivers
- USDA/SEA Reports: Confirm strong edible oil stocks and slow export trends for Indian mustard oil.
- Speculative Positioning: Lackluster, as the trade opts for caution due to high inventories and weak near-term cues.
- International Price Signals: Malaysian palm oil and CBOT soy oil futures both weak; mustards faces substitution pressure.
- Market Sentiment: Largely neutral-to-soft; waiting for demand resurgence or export policy intervention.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India (Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab): Monsoon conditions are favorable with sufficient rainfall, aiding steady arrivals and yield outlook.
- Short-term forecast: No flood or drought threats reported; moderate temperatures and timely rain expected over the next week.
- Impact: Unlikely to disrupt current supply trends; overall production and quality should be maintained.
🌏 Global Market & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | Production (2024/25 F) | Stock (July) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~12.5 million tons | 2.1 million tons | Largest global producer, strong domestic stocks |
| EU | – | – | Rising demand for bio-diesel, stable supply |
| Ukraine/Russia | – | – | Modest exports; supply stable |
| Kazakhstan (PL, export) | – | – | EU buyers firm, steady prices |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Prices likely to stay range-bound, anchored by large domestic stockpiles.
- Watch for any sudden export policy adjustment or edible oil import restrictions—could trigger upside.
- Favorable monsoon limits upside risk for now; focus should be on demand in South/East India and export trends.
- End-users: maintain flexible inventory coverage; buyers should avoid panic-buying amid ample stocks.
- Short-term rally only possible if mill demand surges unexpectedly or speculative funds return in size.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (USD/quintal) | Forecast Range |
|---|---|---|
| Jaipur | 89.96 | 89.50 – 90.10 |
| Kolkata | 92.39 | 91.90 – 92.60 |
| Punjab/Haryana | 86.62 – 87.14 | 86.50 – 87.20 |
| New Delhi (FOB, yellow) | 0.83 – 0.99 EUR/kg | 0.82 – 1.00 |
| Kiełczygłow (PL) | 0.75 EUR/kg | 0.74 – 0.76 |
Summary: Mustard prices will likely remain steady with a soft undertone until oil mill demand or international cues provide fresh direction. Monitor weather and global edible oil trends closely in the coming week.
