Mustard Seeds Market Update: Range-Bound Prices Amid Steady Supply & Cautious Demand

The mustard seeds market continues to display remarkable stability across major trading centers, reflecting a period of balanced fundamentals and limited speculative momentum. Over the past week, prices have remained notably steady, particularly in Jaipur—the key benchmark—where modal rates stayed flat at around ₹7,375 per quintal (approx. €885/ton or $885/ton). This calmness is underpinned by sustained, yet cautious, buying from crushers and limited procurement activity by oil mills, preventing any significant upward price movement. Simultaneously, healthy daily arrivals in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, with volumes ranging between 1.25 and 1.30 lakh bags, have ensured robust supply and mitigated any risk of shortage-led spikes. Export and crushing activity remains aligned with prevailing demand, contributing to the overall market stability.

Current market sentiment signals ongoing caution, with analysts suggesting that only a marked uptick in oil mill demand or a weather-induced disruption could trigger material price action. As the market watches for cues from upcoming weather patterns in the key growing regions, price expectations remain tethered within a narrow range. This creates a holding pattern for both commercial and speculative participants, with eyes sharply focused on any changes in procurement strategy or logistical flows.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Exchange/Market	Variety	Location	Last Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Benchmark Mandi	All Varieties	Jaipur (IN)	885	0%	Neutral
Physical Export FOB	Yellow, micro, sortex	New Delhi (IN)	0.85	0%	Neutral
Physical Export FOB	Yellow, bold, sortex	New Delhi (IN)	1.01	0%	Neutral
Physical Export FCA	Sinapis alba	Kiełczygłow (PL)	0.73	-2.7%	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• Daily arrivals in Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh: 1.25–1.30 lakh bags (steady)
• Market faces no supply contractions; adequate stocks at key mandis
• Crushing operations: 5.25–5.50 lakh bags daily; demand balanced
• Domestic oil mill/processor demand: Stable but unenthusiastic
• Export inquiries: Moderate; no significant new demand triggers

📊 Market Fundamentals

• No major government purchasing initiatives underway
• Speculative activity: Low; participants are waiting for clearer direction
• USDA & local crop reports indicate steady output, no major quality issues
• Key price driver: Weather in Rajasthan and MP; sudden rainfall or hot, dry spells may impact upcoming seed quality and harvest estimates

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact Analysis

• Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh: Weather presently stable but forecasts suggest localized showers over the next week
• Rainfall within normal limits is likely to support ongoing healthy arrivals; excessive or deficient rainfall could impact late harvest quality
• Short-term weather risk: Low; monitor for unseasonal rains or heatwaves that could shift market sentiment quickly

🌎 Global Production, Stocks, and Trade

Country	2023/24 Production (mt)	2023/24 Stocks (mt)	Major Export/Import Partners
India	~12.5m	Medium	Bangladesh, Nepal, EU
Canada	0.2m	High	EU, USA
Russia	0.18m	Stable	EU, China
Ukraine	~0.18m	Low	EU, Canada

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term (1-2 weeks): Expect prices to remain range-bound; little immediate upside or downside risk barring weather shocks
• Monitor procurement behavior from oil mills for first signs of renewed demand; possible catalyst for movement
• Physical exporters should consider locking in prices for forward contracts in current stable environment
• Keep a close watch on local weather bulletins for Rajasthan, MP
• Speculators are advised to be patient until a clear trend emerges; low volatility environment persists

🗓️ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Mandis & FOB)

Market	Current Price (EUR/t)	wk Change	3-Day Forecast
Jaipur Mandi (IN)	885	0%	880–890 (Stable)
New Delhi FOB (yellow, bold)	1.01	0%	1.00–1.02 (Flat)
Poland FCA (Sinapis alba)	0.73	-2.7%	0.72–0.74 (Soft)