In the wake of a recent decline in mustard oil prices—around $6 per quintal triggered by subdued short-term demand—the mustard seeds market continues to exhibit remarkable resilience. Historically, mustard seed and oil prices have shown limited volatility, tending to stay within a defined range despite occasional market noise. The most recent price dip is widely viewed by analysts as a temporary correction rather than the start of a larger downward trend. With robust domestic consumption underpinning both oil and seed markets, the immediate outlook is characterized by stability.
Existing arrivals of 1.81 million quintals last month and sufficient oil production signal that the underlying supply-demand balance remains healthy. As bulk traders anticipate renewed demand over the coming weeks, the likelihood of a prolonged price slide is minimal. Wholesale markets in key Indian producing states averaged $189–$192 per quintal for mustard seeds, while mustard oil held steady around $206–$210 per quintal. Edible oil traders note that, even with global price oscillations, local crushing activity and tight carryover stocks continue to support firmness in the market. Barring any major shocks in domestic arrivals or global edible oil supply, industry sentiment suggests only minor, short-lived price movements in the near term.
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FOB 0.85 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Date Updated | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mustard seeds | yellow, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.85 | 0.85 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | yellow, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.01 | 1.01 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | brown, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.85 | 0.85 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | brown, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.78 | 0.78 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | sinapis alba | KZ | Kiełczygłow, PL | FCA | 0.73 | 0.75 | 2025-09-01 | Slightly bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Domestic mustard seed arrivals recorded at 1.81 million quintals last month.
- Oil production remains robust, comfortably meeting ongoing consumption demand.
- Limited carryover stocks continue to support price stability, with crushing demand steady at local mills.
- Global edible oil price volatility has yet to materially impact Indian mustard seed/oil prices due to insulated domestic fundamentals.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weaker immediate demand led to a recent $6 per quintal drop in oil prices, but this is not expected to persist.
- Bulk trading houses anticipate a demand rebound in the coming weeks, which could result in a gradual uptick in prices.
- Experts forecast minor short-term price movements ($3–$5 per quintal) unless significant external disruptions develop.
- No substantial change from the last market report; price band and structural drivers remain unchanged.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Impact
- India (Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana): The current monsoon is progressing on schedule with adequate rainfall in key mustard-producing belts. Satellite data and local forecasts indicate favorable soil moisture and no major flood threats, which supports stable yield prospects for the ongoing season.
- Kazakhstan/Ukraine: Temperate conditions reported, with limited concerns about drought or early frost. Prospects for sinapis alba crops in Poland are also positive.
Weather conditions in all major regions currently pose minimal risk to supply-side disruption for the upcoming months.
🌐 Global Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production Estimate (mn tonnes) | 2024/25 Stocks (mn tonnes) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~9.5 | Low | Strong local demand, tight inventory |
| Canada | ~0.7 | Stable | Export-focused, steady |
| Kazakhstan | ~0.3 | Low | Small but steady supply stream |
| EU (incl. Poland) | ~0.25 | Low | Import-dependent, steady trade flows |
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- India (FOB, New Delhi): Stable, expected to trade in the EUR 0.84–1.02/kg band over next 3 days, minor volatility (±0.01–0.02 EUR/kg).
- Poland (FCA, Kiełczygłow): Slight bearish bias as prices ease (EUR 0.72–0.74/kg), reflecting ample supply.
🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Market participants should avoid panic selling amid temporary price dips; bulk demand is likely to return.
- Monitor upcoming arrivals and crushing pace, as a sudden surge could slightly pressure prices lower.
- Buyers seeking coverage for the next weeks may find current price levels attractive, given stable fundamentals.
- Exporters should keep a watch on global edible oil trends, though large-scale price disruption is unlikely without external shocks.
- Watch for weather anomalies that could impact standing crops, particularly in India as monsoon progresses.
