The global nuts market continues to show resilience and diversity, driven by evolving consumer preferences, governmental support, and emerging superfoods. One of the most notable recent developments is the robust expansion of Makhana (fox nut) cultivation in India, especially in Bihar, under the newly launched “Integrated Makhana Development Scheme.” Bolstered by significant government investment and policy focus, makhana—already dubbed a “superfood”—is set to transform local economies, particularly in eastern India. This dynamic adds fresh competitive momentum to the wider nuts sector, which also features staple import/export products such as Brazil nuts. At the same time, market participants are observing stable prices in the European market, with Brazil nuts trading at €6.58/kg FCA Dordrecht, Netherlands, reflecting steady supply chains and moderated demand in the healthy snacks category.
The Indian government’s $40 million-plus commitment for expanding makhana production, introducing financial incentives, and disseminating improved seed technology reshapes the landscape for both local farmers and the global nut value chain. As weather conditions in major growing regions remain seasonally typical for early September, early forecasts suggest continued stability in yields and supply. Yet, while the expansion push promises favorable medium-term output for makhana, its broader impact on world nut trade dynamics and price formation warrants deeper tracking in the months ahead.
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil nuts | Netherlands | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 6.58 | 0.00% | Neutral/Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Makhana (India): Significant increase expected as the government drives expansion to 16,000 hectares by 2030 in 8 key states. Increased supply will gradually enter the market from 2026 onward.
- Brazil nuts (South America, NL): Production and export flow remain stable, inventory levels considered healthy in EU ports.
- Consumer demand: Health trends continue to underpin nut consumption, especially in the high-value segments (organic, sustainable, superfoods).
📊 Fundamentals
- Government Policy Push: India’s scheme provides 75% cost support for makhana pond construction and input costs, aiming to reach 1.2 t/ha yield by 2027.
- Production Incentives: Direct farmer subsidies for scientific cultivation, improved pond irrigation, and modern equipment.
- Varietal Improvement: Focus on high-yielding makhana seeds and tech adoption suggests robust supply growth outlook.
- Brazils Stable: NL-origin Brazil nuts keep strong logistics connections to EU customers; no notable shocks reported recently.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India (Bihar, Assam, NE States): Monsoon rainfall remains near normal, supporting pond-based makhana farming and sowing for the coming season.
- South America (Brazil Nut zones): No extreme weather events in August/September; dry season expected to end soon, possible boost to upcoming harvests.
🌏 Global Comparisons
| Country | Major Nut Type | 2024/25 Production (kt) | Stocks (kt) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Makhana | ~100 (projected +25%) | 30 | Expansion under govt. scheme |
| Brazil | Brazil nut | 45 | 12 | Steady yields, good EU flow |
| USA | Almonds/Walnuts | 1,300 | 345 | Still leads in tree nuts |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Procurement: Maintain regular Brazil nut orders; no disruptive signals in NL or South America supply chain currently.
- Watch India: For makhana processors and buyers, note major supply jump as the scheme progresses—expect downward price pressure late 2026 onward.
- Monitor Policy: Government support and new irrigation may trigger regional price volatility; diversify sources accordingly.
- Superfood Trend: Continue to monitor consumer demand for “super” and functional nuts amidst wellness push.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- NL (Brazil Nuts, FCA Dordrecht): €6.58/kg, expected range: €6.55–6.60/kg – Stable
- India (Makhana): No significant price movement anticipated as bulk of new output hits market from late 2026; regional pricing steady on tight supplies for now.
