The global nutmeg market is in the spotlight with an intense price rally, propelled by tightening supplies and a surge in export demand. Despite muted domestic buying, especially from the Ayurvedic and herbal sectors, nutmeg prices in India’s primary trading centers have climbed sharply. High quality nutmeg is commanding about $86 per 100 kg in key mandis, while premium export-grade lots are being offered as high as $93 per 100 kg. This market buoyancy is underpinned by sustained orders from the Gulf region and European buyers, who are keen to secure stocks amid uncertainties over future arrivals. However, domestic processors are holding back, remembering the earlier costly procurement cycles and cautious retail offtake.
India’s yearly output hovers around 20,000 tonnes, with exports on track to approach 8,000 tonnes, thus tightening available supplies for domestic processors. Freight volatility and currency swings are injecting further unpredictability. Market analysts widely concur that unless there is a notable uptick in incoming supplies, prices—especially for export-quality nutmeg—are poised to stay robust or even advance further in the short run.
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Nutmeg whole
without shell
FOB 12.40 €/kg
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Nutmeg
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FOB 12.30 €/kg
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Nutmeg whole
without shell
FOB 6.45 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Latest Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Grade | Organic | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Change (%) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nutmeg whole | Without shell | Yes | India | New Delhi | FOB | 12.40 | 12.51 | -0.88% | 2025-07-26 | Firm, Upward bias |
| Nutmeg | Powder | Yes | India | New Delhi | FOB | 12.30 | 12.41 | -0.89% | 2025-07-26 | Firm, Upward bias |
| Nutmeg whole | Without shell | No | India | New Delhi | FOB | 6.45 | 6.50 | -0.77% | 2025-07-26 | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- India’s annual nutmeg output is roughly 20,000 tonnes.
- Exports are robust at ~8,000 tonnes/year (≈40% of production).
- Major export destinations include Gulf countries and Europe.
- Domestic demand from spice processors and Ayurveda sectors subdued; previous stockpiling and slow retail sales cited.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Key Drivers
- Export demand: Sustained orders from Gulf nations and Europe are the main bullish driver.
- Stock tightness: Limited arrivals and high previous stock purchases mean less availability.
- Freight/currency volatility: International shipping costs and currency moves are adding to price unpredictability.
- Domestic caution: Processors reluctant to buy at elevated rates after earlier expensive procurements.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Prospects
- Western Ghats (Kerala)—notably Idukki and Ernakulam—remain the key nutmeg-producing regions.
- Recent scattered monsoon showers in Kerala have been average to below average in some micro-locations, marginally affecting fruit yield but so far no severe crop damage reported.
- Extended dry spells earlier in the season have contributed to this year’s tight supply dynamics.
- Outlook: As monsoon progresses, better rainfall may promote fresh nutmeg arrivals in late August and September, but current stock remains tight.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Production (tonnes) | Exports (tonnes) | Domestic Usage (approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 20,000 | 8,000 | 12,000 |
| Indonesia | 35,000–40,000 | 15,000 | 25,000 |
| Grenada | 3,000–4,000 | 2,500 | 1,000 |
Note: Indonesia still leads global nutmeg production, but India remains a critical supplier for premium grades.
📆 Trading Outlook & Actionable Insights
- For exporters: Consider forward contracts at current premium prices—especially for consistent quality lots.
- For processors: Delay major purchases; watch for fresh arrivals and possible price corrections in August/September.
- For importers (Gulf, Europe): Secure short-term requirements promptly. Stocks are tight and premiums likely to hold, especially for organic and premium grades.
- Speculators: Limited downside risk short-term; keep an eye on weather, new crop arrivals, and macro volatility.
📊 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Indian Mandis, USD per 100 kg)
| Date | Idukki (High-grade) | Ernakulam (Low-grade) | Export Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 86 | 80 | 92 |
| Day 2 | 87 | 81 | 92–93 |
| Day 3 | 87 | 81 | 93 |
Regional market outlook: Prices likely to stay stable to firm, with incremental upward moves if arrivals remain sparse or export demand intensifies further.
