Global nutmeg markets are currently experiencing a period of relative stability, with prices hovering around $7.25 per kg as of this week. Supported by a combination of steady domestic consumption and restricted supply, the nutmeg sector is proving resilient despite minor headwinds like currency fluctuations and export logistics. Key drivers include delayed harvesting, diminished carryover stocks, and a notably limited arrival of high-quality produce, all contributing to the tightness of the market. Major contributors to the solid demand are food processing and Ayurvedic sectors in India, while international offtake shows slight volatility, especially due to shipping delays out of India.
Looking forward, the market is poised at a critical juncture as the new harvest is scheduled to begin in Kerala and Tamil Nadu within 4–6 weeks. However, preliminary reports suggest the upcoming yield may fall below average due to weak flowering, raising the prospect of further upward price movement, especially with the festive season likely to keep demand elevated. If arrivals remain constrained, prices could see a short-term climb toward $7.50–$7.75 per kg. Conversely, any unexpected surge in supply or demand softening could swiftly cap gains. Export volumes to strategic partners like the UAE, USA, and Europe remain relatively stable, underpinning the current firm tone. Overall, the market maintains a cautious but bullish stance for the coming weeks.
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FOB 6.45 €/kg
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📈 Nutmeg Prices & Exchange Overview
| Product | Type | Organic | Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nutmeg Powder | Powder | Yes | IN/New Delhi | 12.41 | 12.35 | +0.5 | Stable to Firm |
| Nutmeg Whole (Organic) | Whole, w/o shell | Yes | IN/New Delhi | 12.51 | 12.45 | +0.5 | Stable to Firm |
| Nutmeg Whole | Whole, w/o shell | No | IN/New Delhi | 6.50 | 6.66 | -2.4 | Soft for Conventional |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Limited Arrivals: Delayed harvesting and ongoing restrictions on quality produce underpin firm prices.
- Domestic Demand: Robust consumption, especially from food processing and Ayurvedic sectors, is sustaining momentum.
- Exports: Shipments to UAE, USA, and Europe remain stable amidst mild international demand fluctuations.
- Inventory: Lower carryover stocks versus last year support a bullish undertone.
- Procurement: Buyers continue active procurement despite high prices, betting on further upside during festivities.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Speculative Positioning
- Inventory Trends: Compared to last year’s report, current stocks are thinner, especially in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
- Harvest Forecast: Pre-harvest field surveys suggest slightly below-average yields, driven by weak flowering and patchy rainfall during critical crop stages.
- Speculation: Traders’ positioning remains net long, anticipating firm prices into the festive season.
🌦 Weather Outlook for Kerala & Tamil Nadu
- Kerala: Current IMD data points to patchy rainfall, slightly below normal for the week. This could further stress flowering and fruit set, worsening yield prospects.
- Tamil Nadu: Mixed rainfall expected; some relief in southern districts, but overall dry spells may persist for the next 10–15 days.
- Impact on Crop: Combined with already delayed harvesting, adverse weather could keep arrivals limited and potentially lift prices.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023 Production (tonnes) | 2024E Production (tonnes) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 18,000 | 17,200 | Slightly Lower |
| Indonesia | 38,000 | 38,500 | Stable |
| Sri Lanka | 2,900 | 2,800 | Lower |
| EU (import) | n/a | n/a | Stable |
| UAE (import) | n/a | n/a | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term Bullish: If domestic demand remains high and weather issues persist, expect prices to test $7.50–$7.75 per kg (FOB India).
- Monitor Harvest: Watch for early signals of yield recovery or renewed field stress in main growing districts.
- Festive Demand: Maintain moderate inventory coverage for processors and exporters ahead of the festive season.
- Exporters: Lock in forward contracts to mitigate risks from currency and freight volatility.
- Importers: Consider staggered buying to manage exposure as prices may remain firm for 3–4 weeks.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- India (New Delhi FOB, EUR/kg): Powder: 12.40–12.55 | Whole (Organic): 12.50–12.65 | Whole (Conventional): 6.45–6.60
- International (Indicative USD/kg): East Asia: 7.30–7.50 | EU: 7.35–7.55
[past report comparison]: Compared to last cycle, current prices remain elevated but not parabolic, with more pronounced uncertainty around weather and crop yield. Demand structure has shifted slightly more towards domestic consumption, while export stability remains a feature.