Nuts Market Outlook: Pistachio Prices Steady Amid Balanced Supply and Moderate Demand

The global nuts market, with a particular focus on pistachios and Brazil nuts, is currently experiencing a period of relative stability. Pistachio prices have stayed firm at around USD 30 per kg, reflecting an equilibrium between available supply and demand. Market insiders point to adequate domestic and international stocks meeting steady but unremarkable consumption levels. Notably, the traditional boost in demand during wedding and festival seasons has been moderate this year, further capping any significant price movement.

Recent trading sessions saw minor fluctuations of just USD 1–2 per kg, suggesting a lack of speculative fervor and reinforcing the view that prices will remain range-bound unless a major demand shock emerges. Looking forward, traders anticipate subdued volatility unless there is a marked uptick in export orders or a spike in local consumption. In the broader context, Brazil nut prices (notably for medium quality, NL origin, FCA Dordrecht) also reflect stability, quoted at EUR 6.58 per kg as of the latest update, showing no week-on-week change. These factors, combined with current weather stability in key growing regions, position the nuts market for a steady outlook in the near term.

📈 Prices: Market Snapshot

Product	Exchange/Location	Latest Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Pistachios	Physical Markets (Iran/California)	USD 30 / kg	+0.5%	Stable/Sideways
Brazil nuts (medium, NL, FCA Dordrecht)	Physical Market (NL)	EUR 6.58 / kg	No change	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand: Current Dynamics

• Supplies of pistachios remain ample, with exporters and local markets reporting normal inventory flows.
• Seasonal consumption—often driven by weddings and festivals—has been only moderate, reducing the likelihood of price spikes.
• Export demand and import interest remain tepid, with traders awaiting signals of renewed buying from major markets.
• Barring a sudden jump in either domestic demand or foreign orders, the supply-demand balance appears well entrenched.

📊 Fundamentals: Key Drivers & Market Insights

• Price Trends: Minor intra-week volatility seen for pistachios; Brazil nuts prices stable.
• Speculative Interest: Low, with most traders adopting a wait-and-see approach given current fundamentals.
• Historical Comparison: The present steady pricing aligns with last reported conditions for the nuts market, which also cited sufficient stock and subdued speculative activity.
• External Influences: No disruptive news from major producing regions; global shipping and logistics stable for now.

☀️ Weather Outlook: Impact on Key Growing Regions

• US (California) Pistachios: Weather remains mostly favorable with mild temperatures and little sign of drought or storms.
• Iran (Kerman Province): No significant weather anomalies reported; expected to support stable harvest conditions.
• Brazil Nut Origin Regions (Amazon, Bolivia): Regular seasonal rains continue, supporting normal maturing and harvest schedules.

Impact Assessment: Current weather patterns should keep supply flows smooth through the next several weeks, reducing any threat of sudden shocks to the market.

🌐 Global Production and Stock Comparison

Country	Main Nut Exported	2024 Output Estimate (kt)	Ending Stocks (kt)
USA	Pistachios	560	110
Iran	Pistachios	220	40
Bolivia	Brazil nuts	30	6

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Buyers: Secure short-term needs at current prices; unlikely to see bargains or sharp rallies in the next week.
• 📌 Sellers/Traders: Hold off on aggressive sales; instead, monitor local festival and export-driven demand for signals of potential movement.
• 📌 Speculators: Low volatility suggests limited opportunities. Consider options-based strategies or wait for policy/weather triggers.
• 📌 Industry Processors: Maintain inventory cover but avoid overstocking given muted seasonal uptick.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Pistachios (USD, California/Iran): $30–31/kg, rangebound; slight chance of $1/kg move on short-term local buying.
• Brazil Nuts (EUR, NL Domestic): €6.58/kg, stable, with no significant new bids/offers expected.