Oat Market Analysis: Cautious Stability Amid Low Volatility and Global Uncertainty

The oat market has quietly carved out a profile of cautious stability in recent weeks, reflecting both the grain’s defensive appeal and the broader agricultural sector’s muted volatility. Quiet trading volumes and narrow price corrections characterise the CBOT oats market, underscoring the relative balance of supply and demand at present. However, the underlying tranquillity may be masking emerging risks: uncertain weather patterns in key oat-producing regions, questions over future acreage, and a cautious resurgence in speculative participation have all started to prompt closer market attention.

Europe’s oat prices have remained steady, with spot offers for Ukrainian origin oats (feed quality, 98% purity, FCA Odesa) at €0.23/kg. Prices in Chicago have drifted slightly lower, with most actively traded contracts posting small losses. Fundamentally, global oat production in the 2024/25 season is forecast modestly higher than last year, as planted acreage in the US and Canada stabilises, but risks to yields persist due to variable rainfall and temperature forecasts into harvest. Sentiment among traders remains neutral to slightly bearish as open interest contracts, while buyers and sellers alike seek weather clarity and cues from upcoming USDA grain stocks and acreage reports.

[prompt:cmb_offer ids=446]

📈 Prices

Contract	Last Close (US-Cent/bu)	Change (%)	Vol.	Open Interest
Jul 25	370.00	-0.27%	16	1286
Sep 25	369.25	0.00%	103	854
Dec 25	366.75	-0.07%	19	1373
Mar 26	371.75	0.00%	0	11
May 26	377.75	0.00%	0	0
Jul 26	361.75	0.00%	0	1

Spot price Ukraine FCA Odesa: €0.23/kg (unchanged, basis feed, 98%, June 12, 2025)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global supply: 2024/25 oat production expected to be stable to higher, with gains in North America offsetting slight EU acreage reductions.
• Demand: The Feed sector remains the main driver. Mild gain in food market usage in Northern Europe, but industrial demand is flat.
• Inventories: World stocks forecast slightly higher than the previous season, but exporters’ residues remain tight in Ukraine and Canada.
• Trade flows: Geopolitics affect Black Sea logistics; Ukraine remains a key supplier to the EU and MENA regions.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA reports: Market awaits late-June acreage and grain stocks updates. No major surprises expected, but eyes on spring weather impact.
• Speculative activity: Open interest decreasing slightly; fund positioning remains light in oats versus other grains.
• Price drivers: Ongoing weather risks, feed market demand fluctuations, and shifting oilseed/commodities correlations.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Northern Plains: Near-normal to above-normal temperatures predicted next 7 days; scattered rainfall, but concerns over subsoil moisture persist in western regions.
• Canadian Prairies: Variable showers expected, improving outlook for late-seeded oats; some dryness remains in southern Alberta.
• Ukraine/East EU: Warm, drier trend forecast for the next week could stress winter/spring sown oats during the heading phase.

Impact: Persistent dryness in select regions may weigh on yield potential, especially if July heat intensifies. Watch for late-June precipitation events.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (mt)	2023/24 Prod. (mt)	Stocks (est. mt)
Canada	3.0	2.8	0.5
USA	0.7	0.7	0.3
EU	8.1	8.3	1.2
Ukraine	0.5	0.5	0.05

mt = million tonnes; all figures estimated. Source: USDA, EU Commission, industry reports (June 2025)

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Market sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish pending confirmation of yield prospects in North America and Ukraine.
• Buyers: Maintain a patient approach; consider incremental purchases on dips, hedge exposure as weather risks evolve.
• Sellers: Monitor weather through late June; prepare for opportunities to fix prices on rallies if drought emerges in any major producer.
• Speculators: Oats remain illiquid; favour volatility trades around WASDE or major crop reports, otherwise wait for clearer trend signals.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Contract	Price (Local)	3-Day Change (%)	Sentiment
CBOT Jul 25	370 US-cent/bu	-0.2 to +0.3%	Sideways to mild rebound
CBOT Sep 25	369.25 US-cent/bu	-0.3 to +0.2%	Flat to slightly firmer
Ukraine Spot FCA Odesa	€0.23/kg	–	Stable

Outlook: Quiet trade with minor fluctuations, weather headlines hold key to next move.

[prompt:cmb_chart ids=446]