Oat Market Analysis: Firm Prices Amid Stable Fundamentals and Weather Risks

The global oat market is showing signs of renewed firmness as prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have edged upward in recent sessions. The July 2025 oats contract closed at 387.25 US-Cent/bu, up by 0.75 US-Cent or 0.19%, with nearby contracts for fall and winter also posting gains. This resilience comes as end-users and traders watch planting progress and early crop development in key producing regions across North America and Eurasia. Market participants are paying close attention to both macroeconomic signals and localized weather patterns, as late spring brings persistent variability—hot and dry spells in the US Northern Plains contrast with wetter-than-average conditions in parts of Canada and Ukraine. Meanwhile, spot offers out of Odesa, Ukraine, hold steady at 0.23 EUR/kg (FCA), underlining the lack of directional momentum in the physical market for feed-quality oats.

Despite the mostly balanced price action, the oats market remains sensitive to upcoming USDA acreage and stocks revisions, as well as speculative positioning which recently has leaned slightly bullish on expectations of smaller harvested area and potential weather-driven supply disruptions. With global feed grain dynamics still being shaped by tight barley and corn supplies, oats could experience increased substitutional demand depending on the continental spread as the summer advances.

📈 Prices

Contract	Last (US-Cent/bu)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Jul 25	387.25	+0.75 (+0.19%)	Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Sep 25	385.00	+5.50 (+1.45%)	Bullish
Dec 25	380.25	-2.25 (-0.59%)	Cautious
Odesa FCA (Feed, UA, EUR/kg)	0.23	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US Oat Plantings: USDA Prospective Plantings indicate a marginal drop in oat acreage for 2025.
• Ukrainian Supply: Physical market in Ukraine (Odesa) steady at 0.23 EUR/kg, indicating robust availability and minimal export disruptions.
• Global Dynamics: Market closely monitoring Canadian and EU output after wet planting conditions.
• Alternative Feed Demand: Tight barley and corn stocks drive intermittent interest in oats.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Next stocks and acreage reports expected to clarify supply outlook in late June.
• Speculator Positioning: CFTC data shows a light build in long positions for oats, reflecting weather and acreage risk.
• Global Inventories: World oat ending stocks are forecast to remain near 5-year averages, but any weather-induced downgrades could tighten supplies swiftly.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Northern Plains: Mixed—sporadic rains, but pockets of dryness and heat could limit yield potential during flowering.
• Canada (Saskatchewan, Manitoba): Favourable moisture, but risk of localized excess leading to fieldwork delays.
• Ukraine: Mild, slightly wetter-than-average, supportive of crop establishment. No major weather threats in the coming week.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Output (m t)	2023/24 Output (m t)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (m t)
Canada	3.8	4.1	0.7
USA	0.8	0.9	0.18
EU-27	7.4	7.6	0.6
Ukraine	0.45	0.48	0.14

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor July and September CBOT contracts for volatility or breakout signals around USDA reports.
• Physical purchases in Eastern Europe: lock in spot at current levels if logistics are favourable, as Ukrainian supply looks ample but is weather-sensitive.
• Feed buyers: Monitor corn and barley trends for cross-market cues.
• Weather-driven rallies are possible: Use options for risk management if exposed to North American or Ukrainian new crop oats.
• Speculators: Opportunity exists for tactical longs ahead of crop report releases.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current	3-Day Forecast
CBOT July 25 (US-Cent/bu)	387.25	386 – 389
CBOT Sep 25 (US-Cent/bu)	385.00	384 – 388
Odesa FCA (EUR/kg)	0.23	0.23 – 0.24