Oat Market Analysis: Stabilization Persists Amid Steady Demand and Mild Gains

The global oat market currently finds itself at a crossroads. Prices are holding steady, with only mild upward movement visible, even as northern hemisphere weather turns increasingly pivotal for future yield prospects. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), recent contract prices reflect a stabilisation around the 370–390 US-cent/bu range, though volumes remain modest, highlighting some trader caution. This plateau is underpinned by steady end-user demand from feed and food industries, yet is challenged by variable weather patterns in North America and growing competition from alternative grains.

Meanwhile, physical market prices for Ukrainian-origin oats remain unchanged at €0.23/kg (FCA Odesa), signalling limited immediate volatility and ample availability from key exporters. With the latest USDA acreage forecasts and updated global inventory estimates due this month, the market now awaits clarity on supply-side risk. Speculator activity is currently restrained, but could quickly shift with any evidence of weather-driven production threats or European policy adjustments. The next few weeks—and especially meteorological developments across Canadian and Northern European oat belts—will be decisive for price direction. Read on for a full breakdown of prices, fundamental drivers, production updates, weather risks, and our data-driven strategy outlook.

📈 Prices: Key Market Levels and Trends

CBOT Oat Contract	Closing Price (US-Cent/bu)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Jul 2025	388.00	+0.32	Neutral / Slightly Bullish
Sep 2025	374.75	+0.20	Neutral
Dec 2025	370.25	-0.47	Neutral / Slightly Bearish
Oat (Feed), FCA Odesa	0.23 EUR/kg	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Acreage Update: Preliminary reports suggest oat sowings in the US are stable year on year, with minimal acreage loss in Canada, key for global trade.
• Exports & Imports: Ukraine remains competitive on the export market; European Union import demand is expected to remain steady unless weather issues shrink domestic output.
• End-use Demand: Oat products for feed and food continue to see modest growth, supporting a stable demand base.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money is largely neutral, but watch for weather-driven adjustments.

📊 Fundamentals: Global Production & Stocks

Country	Production (2024/25, million t)	Stocks (million t)
Canada	3.5	0.85
USA	0.75	0.18
EU	7.3	1.6
Ukraine	0.48	0.06
Russia	4.2	1.15

Source: USDA, IGC, latest available

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• North America: Most recent NOAA forecasts show average-to-slightly-dry weather in Canadian Prairies, which could marginally lower yield potential, while the US Upper Midwest remains largely normal.
• Europe: Central and Northern Europe report scattered showers, maintaining favourable oat condition, but any prolonged heat later in July poses a risk to grain-fill stages.
• Ukraine/Russia: No significant weather abnormalities, supporting stable crop prospects.

🔍 Market Drivers & Short-Term Outlook

• Stable demand and ample stocks underpin sideways price action.
• The weather in July will be pivotal for Canadian and EU oat yields.
• Watch for any sudden shifts in managed money positions if the weather deviates from normal.
• Harvest progress reports in late July/August will set the tone for Q3 pricing.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Hold off on aggressive sales unless adverse weather emerges; prices are likely to remain rangebound near current levels for now.
• Exporters: Take advantage of stable demand; look for short-term opportunities in feed and food contracts with EU buyers.
• Buyers: Book routine coverage, but do not chase the market unless July brings yield risks.
• Speculators: Stay on the sidelines pending clear weather-driven opportunities; volatility could rise quickly in second half of July.

⏲️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Price Range	Forecast Sentiment
CBOT Jul 2025	385–390 US-Cent/bu	Stable
CBOT Sep 2025	372–376 US-Cent/bu	Stable
Odesa (FCA, Feed grade)	€0.22–€0.24/kg	Stable