Oat Market Faces Persistent Pressure Amid Tepid Demand and Weather Uncertainty

The global oat market is currently facing a period of stagnation as prices continue to edge lower amid tepid demand, comfortable stock levels, and ongoing production uncertainties. Recent trading sessions at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have shown minor declines for oat futures, with key contracts slipping, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment. Supply chains remain robust, especially with ongoing exports out of Ukraine and a solid harvest outlook for North America.

World oat buyers are cautious, only locking in volumes as needed, while ample carry-over stocks limit upward price movement. Simultaneously, weather conditions in top-producing states and the black sea regions add a layer of unpredictability, where episodes of excessive rain or dryness could tilt the yield outlook abruptly. Notably, prices for oats for feed from Ukraine are flat at EUR 0.23/FCA Odesa, suggesting little spot market movement. Macroeconomic influences, namely currency fluctuations and freight rates, further shape market psychology. Traders and farmers are thus advised to stay alert for signals from upcoming USDA reports, weather forecast adjustments, and potential logistical disruptions.

📈 Prices

CBOT Oats Contract	Last Price (US-Cent/bu)	Change	% Change	Market Sentiment
Jul 25	362.25	-1.00	-0.28%	Bearish
Sep 25	357.00	-5.50	-1.52%	Bearish
Dec 25	361.25	-2.00	-0.55%	Neutral/Bearish

Physical Spot Market:

Origin	Product	Location	Term	Price (EUR/t)	Previous
Ukraine	Oat (feed, 98%)	Odesa (FCA)	FCA	0.23	0.23

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Outlook: The June report showed stable stocks, with U.S. oat acreage nearly flat to the previous year, indicating neither a squeeze nor a glut shortly.
• Crop Acreage Forecasts: North America maintains a steady planted area, but some re-plantings may occur due to cold soil, which could alter late summer yield expectations.
• Global Inventories: EU and Black Sea region supplies remain comfortable; however, localised logistics and currency volatility could impact flows.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds remain net short in oat futures, underscoring weak speculative appetite and contributing to the muted price trend.

📊 Fundamentals

• Ample carry-in from last season is keeping immediate supply concerns at bay.
• Physical demand for oats for feeds and milling is described as lacklustre, partly due to competition from other feed grains with lower prices.
• Ukrainian oats remain competitively priced, supporting international buyers and maintaining steady volume out of the Black Sea.

🌦 Weather Outlook

• North America: Recent weather models predict above-average rainfall for the central and northern US Plains, which could benefit crop development if not excessive. Mild temperatures support a healthy vegetative cycle.
• Black Sea/Ukraine: Mostly favourable conditions, but sporadic showers could delay harvests locally. Any prolonged wet spell in July poses a risk to grain quality.
• Canada: Cooler weather persists but is not causing major delays; crop progress is close to the five-year average.

🌍 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	Production (2024/25F, Mt)	Year-on-Year (YoY) Change	Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	0.93	Unch	0.29
Canada	3.42	-2%	0.32
EU	7.51	+1%	1.09
Ukraine	0.45	+5%	0.08
World	23.4		3.14

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Slow physical market activity supports a consolidation phase. Upside risk capped by global stocks and weak feed grain complex.
• Best opportunities may lie in short-dated trades around weather-driven volatility if models turn adverse.
• Importers advised to maintain hand-to-mouth purchasing unless adverse weather creates a yield scare.
• Watch for changes in Canadian crop ratings – any export disruption could boost prices swiftly.
• Strictly monitor currency developments (EUR/USD, UAH/USD) for cross-border trade pricing.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT)

Date	Jul 25 Oats (US-Cent/bu)	Market Direction	Comment
2025-06-20	362-365	Sideways/Bearish	Range-trading, no clear triggers
2025-06-21	360-363	Sideways	Watching the weather, limited news
2025-06-22	360-364	Sideways	Low volumes, summer lull