Oat Market Pulse: Sliding Prices, Supply Shifts & Weather Risks Shape Outlook

The global oat market faces a complex equation as prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) retrace lower despite sporadic bullish ripples in related grains. We’re seeing a direct interplay of lacklustre demand for animal feed, ongoing war-scarred logistics out of the Black Sea, and a mixed-to-volatile weather outlook in the principal oat-growing regions across North America and Eastern Europe. Notably, Ukrainian oats offered for export remain competitively priced, further cementing Ukraine’s role as a flexible supplier regardless of uncertainty within the region.

Market participants, from millers to feed compounders, are watching harvest progress anxiously, while speculators step lightly amid low volumes and mild bearish sentiment. Recently released USDA supply data confirms higher-than-expected US inventories, but all eyes are on the weather forecast, with key states in the US and provinces in Canada bracing for thunderstorm-driven variability and uneven soil moisture. Prepare for continued volatility, as both fundamental and technical elements are far from resolved.

📈 CBOT Oat Prices (US Cent/bu)

Contract	Last	Change	% Change	Volume	Open Interest
Sep 25	370.00	-2.25	-0.60%	4	811
Dec 25	365.00	-3.25	-0.88%	3	2478
Mar 26	370.00	+3.75	+1.02%	1	17
May 26	375.25	+3.75	+1.01%	1	0
Jul 26	363.75	+3.75	+1.04%	1	1

🇪🇺 Physical Market (Odesa, UA, FCA, EUR/t)

Origin	Purity	Price (EUR/t)	Previous	Chg	Update
Ukraine, Odesa	98%	0.22	0.23	-4.3%	2025-07-11

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• USDA Report: US oat ending stocks revised upward; 2025 acreage shrank marginally, but strong yields offset cuts.
• Ukraine: Harvest rapid despite regional disruptions. Export remains competitive but faces EU import restrictions and Black Sea export risk premiums.
• Canada: Area seeded stable, variable weather crimping yield gains in Manitoba/Saskatchewan.
• EU: Harvests on schedule; ample supply but sluggish demand keeps a lid on regional prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• Stocks: US and Canadian inventories are slightly above last year, EU stocks are ample.
• Speculative Interest: Low open interest and thin volume indicate subdued trader engagement on CBOT oats.
• Feed Demand: Feeder margins eroded by slack livestock prices and cheap wheat alternatives.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Northern US: Showers, possible severe storms and localised flooding may delay final harvests; risks are higher in North Dakota and Minnesota.
• Canadian Prairies: Uneven rainfall—some regions flush, others drier than average. Short-term moisture deficits could impact filling oats.
• Ukraine: Warm, dry spell aids harvest but increases post-harvest handling risk. Minor logistics delays reported at Odesa due to port restrictions.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks (2024/25)

Country	Production (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)
Canada	3.6	0.8
USA	0.85	0.21
EU	7.9	1.0
Ukraine	0.7	0.1
Australia	1.1	0.08

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor weather developments in key North American regions—yield losses could quickly turn sentiment bullish.
• Physical buyers: Consider partial coverage at spot levels; Ukrainian oats remain attractively priced, but logistics may disrupt flow.
• Speculators: Thin liquidity and mild bearish sentiment favour a cautious stance—opportunities may arise on weather rallies.
• End-users: Track wheat/corn price ratios; oats could become more attractive if feed wheat tightens.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT (Sep 25): 367 – 372 US-Cent/bu (steady/weak bias)
• Odesa, UA: 0.21 – 0.23 EUR/kg (sideways, high export availability)
• EU (Euronext, theoretical): 175 – 182 EUR/t (sideways, tracking CBOT and physical offers)