Oat Market Surge: Seasonal Highs amid Bullish Momentum and Weather Risks

The oat market is entering a pivotal period, marked by a notable uptick in prices and a surge in trading activity. Recent contract data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) shows oats climbing across multiple delivery months, with July 2025 settling at 365.25 US-Cent/bu, reflecting a 1.67% gain over the previous session. The bullish tilt is underpinned by a convergence of factors: supply concerns, strong speculative interest, and heightened sensitivity to North American weather patterns.

Meanwhile, spot offers in the Black Sea region remain stable, but traders are monitoring a strengthening export demand amid unpredictable Central and Eastern European crop conditions. Tight global stocks, risk-averse farmer selling, and potential crop stress from recent dryness in major producing areas could further stoke volatility in the coming weeks. This evolving dynamic makes oats an attractive watchpoint for both hedgers and speculative players as the summer crop outlook evolves, setting the stage for an active second half of the year.

📈 Oat Prices at a Glance

Contract	Close Price (US-Cent/bu)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Jul 25	365.25	1.67%	Bullish
Sep 25	352.75	1.95%	Bullish
Dec 25	354.50	2.16%	Bullish
Export Offer UA (Odesa, FCA, 98%)	0.23 €/kg	0%	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US oat planted acreage remains below the five-year average, supporting futures premiums.
• Export sales from Ukraine are steady at 0.23 €/kg in Odesa, but trade sources highlight limited farmer selling and a cautious stance as harvest approaches.
• Canadian oat stocks are reportedly tight after last season’s poor yields, limiting export availability for the upcoming months.
• Feed usage demand is robust in Europe, with some buyers covering forward into late summer due to uncertainty around new crop quality.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• USDA Reports: June acreage estimates imply a 3% YOY decrease in US planted area due to lower spring seeding progress in the Upper Midwest.
• Speculative Positioning: Hedge funds and managed money have expanded net-long positions, building on the bullish technical signals from multi-week highs.
• Global Stocks: Still thin, with USDA pegging world oat reserves near multi-year lows. Canadian, EU, and FSU (mainly Russia/Ukraine) inventories are being closely watched for potential supply shocks.

☔ Weather Outlook

• Midwest US: Forecasts call for scattered storms, but prevailing hot and dry pulses could stress oat crops during the critical heading stage over the next 10 days.
• Canada Prairies: Lingering dryness in southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan is limiting yield prospects, while late-planted fields are at risk from erratic rainfall and above-normal temperature trends.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: The near-term outlook was mainly dry last week; some rains are expected, but the ongoing moderate drought could reduce exportable surpluses.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Overview

Country	2024/25 Prod. (mt)	Stocks (mt)	Trend
USA	900,000	175,000	Lower crop area, below average stocks
Canada	3,350,000	Plain. 400,000	Tighter supplies, reduced yield prospects
EU	7,700,000	800,000	Stable, but quality concerns
Russia/Ukraine	5,400,000	1,100,000	Variable, weather-dependent

📌 Key Market Drivers This Week

• US acreage and weather risk premium supporting CBoT contracts
• Continued feed demand strength across EU; buyers forward-covering amid quality uncertainty
• Low available stocks in Canada and cautious FSU export offers keep global supply tight

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider incremental sales on price rallies, but maintain core coverage given yield risk and possible new highs if weather turns adverse.
• End-users: Lock in forward needs for Q3/Q4—spot prices could spike further, especially if weather stress intensifies in North America.
• Speculators: Upside momentum is strong but volatility will stay elevated; use technical levels for discipline, with trailing stops advised.
• Industrial/Feed Buyers: Favour origin diversification; keep tabs on Black Sea offers as potential relief in late Q3 if weather improves.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

 

Exchange/Location	Product	Forecast Range	Sentiment
CBoT	Jul 25 Oat	362.0 – 368.0 US-Cent/bu	Modestly Bullish
CBoT	Sep 25 Oat	350.0 – 355.5 US-Cent/bu	Modestly Bullish
Odesa, UA	Feed Oat (98%)	0.23 – 0.24 €/kg	Steady/Bullish