Oat Market Under Pressure: Prices Edge Lower Amid Ample Supply and Moderate Demand

The oat market is currently experiencing a phase of mild pressure, with prices slipping slightly across near-term and forward contracts. Recent activity on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows oats drifting lower, primarily in reaction to robust supply outlooks and tempered demand. The market remains well-supplied, with minimal weather disruptions so far in the major producing regions of North America and the Black Sea. However, market sentiment is cautious as traders await more definitive data on the progress of spring oat plantings and the possible impact of weather patterns in the upcoming critical weeks.

While international trading interest stays steady, oats from Ukrainian origins remain competitively priced, further pressuring bids in Europe and globally. Despite the stable farmgate prices in Ukraine, forward-looking traders remain attentive to changing macro conditions, particularly given ongoing uncertainties in global feed grain demand and cereal stock levels. With speculative activity subdued as compared to major grains, oats offer a more fundamentals-driven view of the broader grains market’s underlying stability. Weather will remain a pivotal factor as the market transitions from planting to early crop development stages in the northern hemisphere.

📈 Oat Prices: Latest Exchange Overview

Contract	Last Price (US-Cent/bu)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Jul 25	359.75	-0.28%	Bearish
Sep 25	356.00	-0.49%	Bearish
Dec 25	357.25	-0.42%	Bearish

Product	Origin	Location	Purity	Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date
Oat (feed)	UA	Odesa (FCA)	98%	0.23	2025-06-20

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Global Supply: North American and Black Sea crops are projected to be above average, supported by timely planting and crop development.
• Demand Side: Demand growth remains contained, mostly tethered to the feed market with limited expansion into human consumption sectors.
• USDA Outlook: The latest USDA projections indicate comfortable global stocks, though any sign of adverse weather could alter the landscape rapidly.
• Speculative Positioning: Open interest remains subdued, reflecting limited speculative interest and a predominantly physical market focus.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Competitiveness

• Global Stocks: Large carry-over stocks from Black Sea exporters and stable production in North America are key bearish factors.
• Import Markets: European demand is primarily met by local production and competitively priced Ukrainian oats.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• North America: Current meteorological forecasts indicate mostly benign weather, with soil moisture deemed adequate for early crop development in Canada and the US Midwest.
• Ukraine/Russia: Conditions in the Black Sea region are currently favorable, with warm temperatures supporting crop progress and limited drought signals on the horizon.
• Potential Risks: Any upcoming hot and dry spells could change sentiment rapidly; the outlook for the next 10 days will be pivotal for price direction.

🌐 Country Comparison: Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Est. Prod. (mln t)	2024/25 Est. Stocks (mln t)
Canada	4.0	1.5
USA	0.9	0.4
Russia/Ukraine	1.2	0.3
EU	7.0	2.0

📆 Trading Outlook: Analyst Recommendations

• Short-term pressure is likely to persist on the back of large old-crop carryout and healthy weather forecasts.
• Monitor for any heat/dryness emerging in July that could threaten yield potential, prompting price support.
• Feed compounders may find value at current levels, but aggressive forward purchases should be limited unless weather risks emerge.
• Importers are advised to diversify origins where possible, as Ukrainian oats offer sharp discounts for nearby positions.
• Speculators may remain cautious until clearer weather threats or demand surprises materialise.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT, FCA Odesa)

Exchange/Location	Spot Price	3-Day Forecast	Direction
CBOT Jul 25	359.75 US-Cent/bu	358–361 US-Cent/bu	Stable/Lower
FCA Odesa (UA)	0.23 EUR/kg	0.22–0.23 EUR/kg	Stable

Conclusion: The oat market faces continued gentle headwinds as ample supply, mild demand, and benign growing weather keep prices in check. Weather volatility remains the biggest uncertainty for summer. Vigilant monitoring of North American and Black Sea crop conditions is recommended going forward.