Onion Market Eases on Improved Arrivals: Stabilization in Sight as Supply Resumes

The onion market, following several days of relentless price hikes driven by tight supplies, is displaying clear signs of stabilization as fresh arrivals begin to increase in India’s key trading centers. Previously, limited availability from major producing states had prompted a rapid escalation in prices across both wholesale and retail markets. However, with daily arrivals in primary hubs like Gondal rising from 30,000 to 40,000 bags, traders now report a notable moderation in price rally momentum. The prevailing sentiment is that while firm demand persists from wholesalers, increased inflows—especially with Maharashtra and Gujarat scaling up output—are working to cap further price surges.

Despite lingering firmness in market sentiment, the stabilization is widely welcomed by participants who have grown wary of additional volatility. The consensus is that barring any abrupt weather events, supply normalization should keep prices within a narrower band over the short term. Recent trends from Lasalgaon, India’s largest onion market, corroborate this narrative, indicating that the sharpness of previous upswings is subsiding as shipments to mandis recover. This transition not only reduces the risk for buyers and sellers but may also signal a return to more predictable trading conditions as harvest pressure mounts in the weeks ahead.

📈 Onion Market Prices

Name	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Link
Onion powder	Grade – B	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.31	1.31	2025-10-03	View
Onion powder	White	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.58	1.58	2025-10-03	View
Onion	Powder, Organic	India	New Delhi	FOB	2.66	2.66	2025-10-03	View
Onion	Fresh	Egypt	Kairo	FOB	0.80	0.80	2025-10-03	View
Onion	Flakes, Organic	India	New Delhi	FOB	5.15	5.15	2025-10-03	View
Onions fried	Crispy fried	Poland	Lodz	FCA	3.42	3.42	2025-09-29	View

🌍 Supply & Demand Situation

• Arrivals at major Indian markets (notably Gondal) increased from 30,000 to 40,000 bags/day, versus notably lower inflows at the start of the month.
• Lasalgaon and leading mandis report price stabilization as crop inflows recover from Maharashtra and Gujarat.
• Steady demand is observed from wholesalers, with no significant drop as prices adjust.
• Expectations are for further normalization as new season harvests continue to enter markets.

📊 Market Fundamentals & External Drivers

• Speculative Activity: After panic buying during the shortage, speculative activity appears to have cooled as arrivals pick up.
• Global Inventories: Onion stocks in major exporting nations remain tight, but improved Indian supply is balancing regional markets.
• International Prices: Export prices from India are steady, supporting competitive positioning against Egypt and other origins.
• Policy Environment: No new export bans or restrictions have been reported; government remains vigilant on food inflation risks.
• Last Market Report Comparison: Price stabilization and higher arrivals are new since the last report, which indicated sustained upward price pressure and tightness.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Weather in major producing states, especially Maharashtra and Gujarat, remains mostly favorable for harvesting and transportation.
• No significant disruptions from rainfall or extreme temperatures are currently forecasted for the next 7 days.
• Short-term forecasts indicate continued dry conditions, supporting further increases in arrivals.
• However, any sudden adverse weather could quickly impact daily market volumes and price direction.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• India, Egypt, and China are leading global producers. Indian supply is currently a stabilizing force amid otherwise tight global stocks.
• Major importers (e.g., Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Middle East) are expected to maintain import demand at prevailing prices, though some may substitute if prices edge higher again.
• Stock positions in established hubs remain relatively low, arguing against a sharp near-term price drop.

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term bias is neutral to slightly bullish as stabilized prices meet improved arrivals—volatility risk shifts to potential weather incidents.
• For exporters: Maintain offer discipline; prices are still at attractive levels for fresh and processed onions.
• For importers/wholesalers: Accept moderate price range but avoid panic buying—market is less likely to surge dramatically if arrivals hold steady.
• Monitor local weather and policy developments closely; any abrupt change could prompt reactions.
• Adjust coverage periods strategically—use current stabilization for cost-averaging.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Selected Markets)

Market	Price Range (USD/kg)	Direction	Sentiment
Gondal (IN)	0.25 – 0.27	↔	Stable
Lasalgaon (IN)	0.26 – 0.28	↔	Stable to slightly firm
New Delhi FOB (Powder)	1.31 – 1.58 (EUR, powder)	↔	Stable
Kairo FOB (Fresh)	0.80 (EUR, fresh)	↔	Stable