Onion Market in Turmoil: Weather Woes, Price Pressure, and Shifting Acreage Shape Outlook

The Indian onion market is currently facing a perfect storm of challenges, with pre-monsoon rains wreaking havoc across key growing regions in Maharashtra and prices continuing their downward spiral. Since early May, heavy and unseasonal rainfall has damaged thousands of acres of onions, leaving many farmers in distress. The damage is particularly acute in Nashik, the country’s onion heartland, but extends throughout Maharashtra’s major producing districts. The price pressure is evident: as of May 20, the average price at Lasalgaon—the region’s benchmark market—dropped to just USD 13.80 per quintal, a level that barely covers most growers’ costs. The situation is compounded by a significant lack of proper storage infrastructure, forcing many to store onions in fields where they are vulnerable to both heat and rain. Despite a dramatic increase in onion acreage for 2024–25, the ongoing weather disruptions threaten to offset any potential gains in output. Meanwhile, India’s export performance remains robust, even amid periodic government restrictions, highlighting the crop’s importance for foreign exchange. As farmers and traders anxiously await official crop loss assessments and weather stabilization, the market remains volatile, with uncertainty surrounding both short-term supply and medium-term price recovery.

📈 Prices: Latest Onion Market Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Onion powder	grade – B	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.27	1.30	-2.3%	Bearish
Onion powder	white	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.57	1.60	-1.9%	Bearish
Onion	powder (organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	2.65	2.68	-1.1%	Bearish
Onion	fresh	EG	Kairo	FOB	0.77	0.77	0.0%	Stable
Onion	flakes (organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	5.20	5.23	-0.6%	Bearish
Onions fried	crispy fried	PL	Lodz	FCA	3.42	3.42	0.0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Weather Impact: Pre-monsoon rains since early May have caused extensive crop damage in Maharashtra, notably in Nashik, Konkan, Pune, and adjoining districts.
• Acreage Trends: Onion acreage rebounded sharply to a record 651,965 ha in 2024–25, up from 464,884 ha in 2023–24, with Nashik alone accounting for 290,136 ha.
• Harvest Timing: Early-harvested crops fared well, but April–May harvests suffered both from heat stress and rains, reducing marketable yields.
• Storage Deficit: Lack of proper storage has led to post-harvest losses, as much of the crop was left exposed in fields.
• Export Performance: Despite export bans and restrictions, India remains a key global supplier. Export volumes for 2023–24 were 1.717 million tonnes, earning USD 47.06 million.
• Domestic Demand: Calls for transparent domestic demand data highlight the need for better market planning.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Trade

Year	Acreage (ha)	Exports (mn tonnes)	Export Value (USD mn)
2022–23	553,212	2.525	54.26
2023–24	464,884	1.717	47.06
2024–25	651,965	–	–

• India: Largest exporter and one of the top producers; Maharashtra is the key state.
• Egypt: Stable export prices; fresh onions from Egypt quoted at USD 0.77/kg FOB Kairo.
• Stock Situation: Precise data unavailable, but heavy losses reported in field-stored onions in India.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• Maharashtra (Nashik, Pune, Kolhapur, etc.): Continued risk of sporadic pre-monsoon showers through the next week. High humidity and field wetness could further impact quality and storability.
• Short-Term Impact: Harvesting and drying operations are delayed, increasing spoilage risk. Standing crops remain vulnerable to fungal diseases and rot.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued price volatility in Indian markets as weather damage assessments are finalized.
• Exporters should monitor government policy closely; any relaxation in export restrictions could trigger a price rebound.
• Importers may find stable supply and pricing from Egypt and other origins as Indian output remains uncertain.
• Short-term sentiment is bearish due to oversupply and quality issues, but medium-term upside risk exists if crop losses are larger than currently estimated.
• Farmers are advised to improve post-harvest handling and storage to minimize further losses.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast (USD/kg)	Trend
Lasalgaon (IN)	0.138	0.135 – 0.14	Weak to Stable
New Delhi (Onion Powder, Grade B)	1.27	1.25 – 1.29	Stable to Slightly Bearish
Kairo (EG, Fresh)	0.77	0.76 – 0.78	Stable