The global onion market is navigating a period marked by volatile weather, shifting production dynamics, and complex trade flows. This summer, key producing regions from Europe to India and North America are beset by a mix of tight supplies, weather-related challenges, shifting price trends, and uncertain outlooks for both growers and buyers.
In Europe, a late start and dry spell are squeezing yields and raising production costs — especially in the United Kingdom and Spain, where drought and unfavourable temperatures have hit the primary onion crops. Continental suppliers such as the Netherlands and Germany are hoping for relief and supply normalisation in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Italy’s domestic supply remains limited but stable, with some exports buoyed by high yields in Apulia. North America continues to face tightness in red and white onion varieties, although new harvests from Mexico and Texas are offering some relief. In Africa, the South African market is well-supported by regional and cross-border demand, despite curing and quality challenges earlier in the season.
Elsewhere, India is driving a notable export rebound on the back of expanded acreage and the removal of export duties, while Egypt faces oversupply and soft international demand after a strong season. New Zealand’s stable, high-quality output is restoring access to Indonesia, aiding regional price stabilisation.
Market participants must heed the disparate realities — from tightness and firm pricing in some markets to the looming downward pressure from new European supply. Weather remains the pivotal variable, with the next weeks likely to tip the market direction for both prices and inventories.
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Onions fried
crispy freid onions
FCA 3.42 €/kg
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Onion powder
grade - B
FOB 1.32 €/kg
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Onion powder
white
FOB 1.59 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Onion Price Table: Key Products & Recent Trends
| Product | Origin | Location | Date | Price (EUR) | Weekly Change | Delivery | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onions fried (crispy) | PL | Lodz | 2025-07-23 | 3.42/kg | 0% | FCA | Steady |
| Onion powder (grade B) | IN | New Delhi | 2025-07-19 | 1.32/kg | +1.5% | FOB | Slightly Bullish |
| Onion powder (white) | IN | New Delhi | 2025-07-19 | 1.59/kg | +1.3% | FOB | Firm |
| Onion (powder, organic) | IN | New Delhi | 2025-07-19 | 2.67/kg | +0.8% | FOB | Firm |
| Onion (fresh, conv.) | EG | Kairo | 2025-07-19 | 0.80/kg | +1.3% | FOB | Weak/Soft |
| Onion (flakes, organic) | IN | New Delhi | 2025-07-19 | 5.14/kg | +0.4% | FOB | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics: Regional Highlights
- UK/Western Europe: Prolonged dry spell and heat are threatening yields, especially of high-demand large bulbs. Imports from Egypt, New Zealand, and South Africa are filling shelves, with relief expected from new Dutch and German harvests.
- Spain: Suffering from 35-40% reduced early harvests; strong demand for large onions, high prices – likely to ease as Dutch/German supply ramps up soon.
- Italy: Domestic supply tight, small/medium calibres dominate. High prices hold, but a hot summer risks further losses. Exports to Germany, France, and Greece are steady.
- Netherlands: Early harvest hasn’t fully filled the supply gap. Prices are volatile, trending lower as buyers wait for larger volumes. Demand moderate, local and imported supplies balancing.
- North America: Tight supply for reds and whites, firm pricing. Relief expected as Texas production begins, but overall volumes remain lower YoY.
- India: 25% production increase, lifting of export duties fueling a strong export season to SE Asia and the Gulf. Prices are lower YoY but recovering with festival demand.
- South Africa/Egypt: South Africa’s premium large brown onions outperform local whites, while Egypt faces excess stocks and weak EU demand after aggressive harvest expansion.
📊 Fundamental Data & Market Drivers
- Weather Impact: Drought in NW Europe (UK, Spain, Germany), variable quality in the Southern hemisphere (South Africa, India), and curing/moisture issues in key African regions.
- Production Volumes:
- Spain: Early crop down 35-40%, mid-season harvest ~10% below normal.
- India: 25% YoY rise in output, acreage up 60% in Nashik.
- Egypt: Record 5m tonnes; surplus >1m tonnes, weak late-season demand.
- Italy: Small/Medium calibres dominate, large sizes scarce.
- Netherlands: Good early yields, but market supply/demand cautious.
- Trade & Policy: India removed export duty (April 2025), New Zealand access was restored to Indonesia, temporary trade restrictions (Namibia/Botswana vs South African onions), and shifting flows from Egypt post-EU export campaign.
- Speculative Positioning: Buyers are nervous amid volatile prices, especially in the Netherlands and Spain, and hesitant to commit to significant tonnage ahead of new EU supplies.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Growing Region Analysis
- UK & NW Europe: Persistent dry, warm weather forecast for next 10 days; risk of further production losses and undersized bulbs.
- Spain: High temps accelerate late harvest, but daylight/heat stress remains a risk for the grano crop; chance of showers limited.
- Germany/Netherlands: Scattered showers possible but not enough to reverse dry soil trends; mildew pressure remains in Germany.
- India: Monsoon near-normal but sporadic heavy events could impact crop quality during storage and transit.
- North America: Texas/Gulf states forecast hot and mostly dry into next week, supportive for harvesting but stressful for late-set crops.
- South Africa: Seasonal transition: Western Cape dry, northern areas facing humidity, erratic showers complicating storage/curing.
📊 Global Production & Stocks Overview
| Country | 2024 Output Estimate (m t) | Current Stock Situation | Supply Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~32 | High | Strong, ample exports |
| China | ~23 | Stable | Normal |
| Egypt | 5 | Large surplus | Soft, focusing on non-EU markets |
| Spain | 1.3 | Low/declining | Relief expected from new EU crops |
| Netherlands | 1.5 | Moderate | Increasing, early harvests ongoing |
| USA | 3.2 | Tight (red/white) | Improving with Mexico/Texas crops |
| South Africa | 0.6 | Low/normal | Cape season ending, imports rising |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor EU/UK supply closely — watch for price dips as Dutch & German onions take market share in August.
- Spanish and Italian exporters: Prioritise large-size contracts while premiums persist; prepare for potential price decline.
- North American importers: Manage procurement actively as Texas/Mexico supply arrives and pricing softens.
- Indian exporters: Leverage high stock positions before the expected festive price uptick and potential logistics challenges.
- South African producers: Maximise value on large brown onions during the Cape premium window.
- Speculators: Short-term price corrections likely in Europe; stay nimble with sizing/quality arbitrage opportunities.
- Monitor weather — adverse conditions could still disrupt late-season and stored crops.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast: Key Markets
| Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EG (Fresh, FOB) | 0.80 | 0.78 – 0.81 | Slight downward/Stable |
| PL (Fried, FCA) | 3.42 | 3.42 – 3.44 | Stable |
| IN (Powder, FOB) | 1.32 | 1.32 – 1.35 | Slight upward |
| DE/NL (Fresh, EXW) | 0.30 | 0.28 – 0.32 | Low/Volatile |
| IT (Fresh, EXW) | 0.50 | 0.48 – 0.52 | Stable/Weak |
