The Indian onion market is caught in a delicate balance as prices remain subdued against a backdrop of weak trading activity and restricted international flows. Key markets like Dungla and Rajkot report lackluster sentiment, with domestic wholesale prices hovering at USD 47–48 per 100 kg, notably lower than previous levels. Market observers note that this softness stems from both steady arrivals and a pronounced slack in export demand—especially toward Bangladesh, historically a significant buyer of Indian onions. The situation is further compounded by the inability to export to neighboring Pakistan, where prices are even lower and cross-border trade is not viable.
Current arrivals in Shyamlaji and Madhya Pradesh remain robust, underpinning stable supplies, but traders consistently echo that a sustained price recovery hinges on the resumption of large-scale exports to Bangladesh. Without this outlet, ongoing supply pressure continues to limit upward price movement despite otherwise balanced fundamentals. For market participants, the coming days will be crucial, as weather developments and shifts in border trade could tip the scales toward either further price erosion or newfound stability. Professionals and informed readers should monitor both cross-border political developments and region-specific weather conditions, as these will play an outsized role in shaping near-term price trajectories.
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📈 Onion Prices Snapshot
| Location | Product | Price (USD/100kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dungla | Fresh Onion | 47–48 | -2% | Weak |
| Rajkot | Fresh Onion | 47–48 | -2% | Bearish |
| Madhya Pradesh | Fresh Onion | 47.5–48 | -1.5% | Bearish |
| Product | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onion powder (grade – B) | IN | New Delhi | 1.33 | 2025-08-22 |
| Onion powder (white) | IN | New Delhi | 1.60 | 2025-08-22 |
| Onion powder (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 2.68 | 2025-08-22 |
| Onion flakes (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 5.15 | 2025-08-22 |
| Fresh Onion | EG | Kairo | 0.81 | 2025-08-22 |
| Onions fried | PL | Lodz | 3.42 | 2025-08-14 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Domestic Arrivals: Steady in Shyamlaji and Rajkot; peak arrivals in Madhya Pradesh (5,000 quintals/day).
- Export Constraints: Exports to Bangladesh stalled, blocking crucial demand; Pakistan remains nonviable due to lower prices.
- Stock Pressure: Ongoing arrivals and sluggish trading activity are keeping stocks elevated, heightening supply-side pressure.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Recent Trends: Wholesale prices down about 2% on the week, reflecting demand-side weakness.
- Product Form: Onion powder (both grade B and white) stable at 1.33–1.60 EUR/kg FOB New Delhi; organic forms command a premium.
- Regional Variation: Stable but subdued sentiment across major Northern Indian markets.
- Trade Comments: Market improvement hinges on reopening large-scale exports, mainly to Bangladesh.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Madhya Pradesh/Western India: Latest weather data suggests generally stable monsoon conditions in Northern and Central India, favoring steady arrivals but not significant quality issues.
- No Immediate Weather Threats: Current forecast implies continued robust arrivals, with only isolated rainfall expected over the next three days—unlikely to disrupt harvest or transit.
- Implications: Weather remains price-neutral unless severe events develop in key growing areas.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Export Status | Recent Trend | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Muted | Down | High stocks, weak exports |
| Bangladesh | Major Importer | Needs Supply | Awaiting resumption of Indian exports |
| Pakistan | Exporter | Low Prices | Trade with India not viable |
| Egypt | Exporter | Stable | Competing on global market; Fresh onion (EUR 0.81/kg FOB Kairo) |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔰 Monitor for Export Policy Shifts: Watch for developments related to export permissions, especially toward Bangladesh.
- 🔰 Stock Management: Consider holding inventories cautiously as further downside risk persists absent renewed foreign demand.
- 🔰 Spot Buying: End-users may benefit from current price softness, but should be poised to lock in supply in case export channels open suddenly.
- 🔰 Diversify Sourcing: Processors can explore Egyptian or European options for fresh and value-added onion products at stable FOB rates.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Exchange | Product | Forecast Price (USD/100kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dungla | Fresh Onion | 47–48 | Sideways to slight down |
| Rajkot | Fresh Onion | 47–48 | Sideways |
| Madhya Pradesh | Fresh Onion | 47.5–48 | Stable |
Conclusion: Unless export momentum resumes—specifically toward Bangladesh—onion market prices will likely remain under pressure due to sustained supply and tepid local demand. Weather is expected to play only a marginal role in the immediate term, but policy shifts on the export front remain the most decisive factor to watch.