The onion market is currently at a pivotal junction, following a rapid shift in regional trade dynamics. The recent decision by Bangladesh to open its border for onion imports has sent a ripple of uncertainty through wholesale markets, notably in the Dungli region. Until now, traders had benefitted from a stable upward trend supported by limited supply and growing demand, but the anticipation of significant fresh supplies from Bangladesh has reversed the market’s trajectory. Buyers have become more cautious, holding off purchases in the hope of cheaper product arrivals. With the new competition also coming from Indian southern states like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, traditional suppliers are now bracing for potential losses and increased competition.
Onion prices, once buoyant, have faltered in this new climate. Wholesale prices have eased to $0.23-0.26 per kg for common grades and up to $0.29 per kg for premium lots—down from firmer values earlier in the season. Social media and trader discussions highlight growing apprehension; many are calling for market intervention to protect growers already facing high input costs. Seasonal festive demand, which typically supports higher prices in August and September, may be muted if import volumes accelerate. The pace at which imported onions enter the market, and how buyers adapt to these changes, will determine whether this is a short-term correction or the start of a fundamental price re-alignment.
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Onions fried
crispy freid onions
FCA 3.42 €/kg
(from PL)
Onion powder
grade - B
FOB 1.33 €/kg
(from IN)
Onion powder
white
FOB 1.60 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onions fried | crispy fried | PL | Lodz | FCA | 3.42 | 3.42 | 2025-08-14 |
| Onion powder | grade – B | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.33 | 1.33 | 2025-08-14 |
| Onion powder | white | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.60 | 1.60 | 2025-08-14 |
| Onion | powder (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 2.68 | 2.68 | 2025-08-14 |
| Onion | fresh | EG | Kairo | FOB | 0.81 | 0.81 | 2025-08-14 |
| Onion | flakes (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.15 | 5.15 | 2025-08-14 |
| Region | Market Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dungli (IN) | 0.23-0.29 | -8 to -12% | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply Surge: Bangladesh’s border opening for onion imports increases available supply, creating downward pressure.
- Domestic Competition: Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh face competition from Bangladeshi imports, threatening their traditional market share.
- Festive Demand: Typically surges in August/September, but buyers are delaying purchases in anticipation of further price declines.
- Buyers’ Strategy: Many buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, potentially accelerating short-term price drops if imports materialize quickly.
📊 Fundamentals
- Cost vs Price: Rising input/cultivation costs are biting into margins for farmers and traders as prices fall.
- Policy Risk: Calls for market intervention are gaining momentum in Gujarat and southern India.
- Inventory: Reports suggest stock levels remain comfortable so far, but rapid import influx could reverse this trend and pressure warehouses.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Karnataka/Andhra Pradesh: Recent showers have supported late crop vegetative growth, but excessive rains could threaten post-harvest handling and boost rot/disease risks.
- Egypt: Weather mostly favorable, with stable conditions helping exportable fresh onion supplies.
- Bangladesh: Import flows may be affected if monsoon flooding disrupts logistics, but short-term forecasts remain stable.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Output* (est. million tons) | Stocks (est., million tons) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 24.0 | ~2.0 |
| China | 24.6 | ~2.5 |
| Bangladesh | 2.5 | n/a |
| Egypt | 3.2 | ~0.3 |
| Paksitan | 2.0 | n/a |
*Estimated figures. Precise country outputs subject to annual revisions.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔻 Short-term sentiment: Bearish — Ongoing price adjustments expected as imports ramp up.
- 🕰️ Buyers: Consider holding off major purchases until import-led price drops stabilize.
- 💼 Traders: Manage inventory conservatively and monitor border policy or intervention signals closely.
- 🌱 Producers: Engage with associations for potential policy support. Rethink acreage/planning if downward pressure persists.
- 🌦️ Weather Watch: Keep an eye on late-monsoon forecasts in southern India and logistics updates from Bangladesh.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Region | Exchange/Market | Forecast Price (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | Dungli (IN) | Wholesale | 0.22 – 0.26 | Bearish |
| Day 2 | Dungli (IN) | Wholesale | 0.22 – 0.25 | Bearish |
| Day 3 | Dungli (IN) | Wholesale | 0.21 – 0.25 | Bearish/Stable |
