Pakistan Grain Outlook 2025/26: Wheat Declines, Rice Exports Remain Strong

Pakistan Grain Outlook 2025/26: Wheat Declines, Rice Exports Remain Strong

Pakistan’s wheat production drops after record highs amid market liberalisation and farmer discontent, while rice exports are boosted by strong demand, supply chain efficiency, and robust basmati performance.

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📊 1. Key Indicators Overview

Metric	MY 2024/25 (revised)	MY 2025/26 (forecast)
Wheat production	31.8 MMT (↑ record)	29.0 MMT (↓ -8.8%)
Wheat imports	0.1 MMT	1.0 MMT (private sector)
Wheat exports	0.5 MMT	0.5 MMT
Rice production	9.75 MMT	9.80 MMT (↔ stable)
Rice exports	6.0 MMT (↑ from 5.8)	5.5 MMT (↑ from 5.3)
Rice imports	12,000 tons	0

 

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🌾 2. Wheat – Liberalisation Lowers Prices, Dampens Farmer Sentiment

• Production in 2025/26 falls to 29.0 MMT, down from a record 31.8 MMT in 2024/25 due to:
  • 5.5% reduction in planted area.
  • Yield drop (-3.3%) from dry sowing season and heat stress.
• Punjab alone lost ~2 MMT vs. 2024/25 levels (see Table 1, page 2).
• The government ended the minimum support price policy, leaving wheat to free-market forces:
  • Producer prices dropped from $350/MT (2023) to $215/MT (2025).
  • Flour prices fell 10% YoY as of May 2025, benefiting consumers (see Graph A, page 3).
• Wheat imports are expected to be limited to 1.0 MMT and handled entirely by the private sector.
• Illicit wheat flour exports to Afghanistan are reportedly rising due to price differentials.

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🍚 3. Rice – Exports Remain Resilient, Basmati in Demand

• Production for both MY 2024/25 and 2025/26 remains stable at ~9.8 MMT.
• Yield slightly declined in 2024/25 due to input constraints and inconsistent water availability (↓ from 4.0 to 3.7 MT/ha).
• Domestic rice prices show a slight downward trend (see Graph B, page 5).

📦 Export Update

• 2024/25 export forecast raised to 6.0 MMT (↑ from 5.8 MMT), driven by:
  • Currency stability.
  • Efficient logistics.
  • Strong demand from Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, and West Africa.
• First 7 months export volume: 3.9 MMT (including 432k basmati, 3.5 MMT non-basmati).
• 2025/26 forecast raised to 5.5 MMT (↑ from 5.3 MMT).

🌍 Top Destinations (Nov 2024 – Apr 2025):

Country	Volume (MT)
Indonesia	349,675
Philippines	224,285
Malaysia	218,095
Senegal	165,432
Côte d’Ivoire	150,996
China	144,208
EU	137,694

• Basmati rice remains competitive even at premium prices ($1,100/MT) due to strong branding and quality reputation in the EU, UK, and Middle East.
• Non-basmati offered at $395/MT remains attractive for bulk buyers in Africa and Southeast Asia.

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🧾 4. Policy Highlights

• Wheat market fully liberalised – no guaranteed prices, government withdrawal from procurement.
• Rice trade remains open; exporters are targeting new Western Hemisphere markets (Cuba, Chile, Haiti).
• No new import policies announced.

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📦 5. Ending Stocks Snapshot

Commodity	MY 2024/25	MY 2025/26
Wheat	5.17 MMT	2.77 MMT ↓
Rice	1.05 MMT	1.15 MMT ↑

Wheat stocks are expected to sharply decline in 2025/26 due to lower production and higher feed/residual use, while rice stocks slightly rebuild after a dip in 2024/25.

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🧭 Conclusion & Outlook

• Pakistan’s wheat sector is adjusting to a free-market transition, which has lowered prices and could reduce area further in the coming years.
• Rice exports remain a bright spot, with efficient supply chains, competitive pricing, and diversification in markets sustaining strong volumes.
• The country remains a key global supplier of premium basmati and a reliable bulk exporter of non-basmati.

Source: USDA