Pakistan Mango Market Faces Growth Hurdles and Value-Added Potential in 2024

The Pakistani mango market stands at a crossroads, balancing robust production potential with persistent obstacles across production, logistics, and quality control. Despite being the world’s sixth-largest mango exporter, only about 10% of Pakistan’s 1.2 million ton annual crop reaches international markets, highlighting a vast but unrealized export opportunity. High input costs, post-harvest losses of nearly 30%, and fragmented value-added processing facilities continue to hamper both growth and profitability. However, recent improvements in cold-chain logistics and preservation, inspired by Chinese technologies, have halved transit times and reduced spoilage. These advances open doors for Pakistani mangoes on e-commerce platforms, with daily peak sales now exceeding 50 tons and high customer satisfaction levels reported.

Sector specialists underscore the urgent need for higher density plantings, greenhouse adoption, enhanced genetic stock, and regulatory reforms to streamline costs and assure quality. While current export targets remain modest relative to potential, overhauling quality standards, boosting the processed mango segment, and building a seamless farm-to-port supply chain could position Pakistan to double its exports to China within five years. Weather developments and global demand will further shape the 2024/25 outlook, keeping stakeholders focused on both immediate efficiencies and longer-term structural transformation.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment	Last Updated	Offer Link
Mango dried (chunks, 2–3 cm, 13–19% moisture)	Vietnam	FOB Hanoi	5.62	5.62	Stable	2025-08-21	Link
Mango dried (slices/chunks, 2–3 cm, 2–15 mm thickness)	Vietnam	FOB Hanoi	5.85	5.85	Stable	2025-08-21	Link
Mango dried (normal sugar, 8-10 mm)	Thailand	FCA Dordrecht (NL)	4.57	4.57	Stable	2025-08-21	Link

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Pakistan: Annual production at 1.2 million tons, with only 10% exported due to high losses and quality constraints.
• Export Targets: 2024 season aims for 125,000 tons (US$100 million value).
• China: 2023 exports reached 115,000 tons (US$80 million); plan to double this in 5 years.
• Value Addition: Limited segmental diversification—raw fruit dominates, while juicing/drying/packing remain underserved.
• Demand Trends: Improved logistics, high demand on Chinese e-commerce, >50 tons/day peak sales recently.

📊 Fundamentals

• Post-Harvest Losses: 30% of crop lost to outdated handling; improved cold chains now being adopted.
• Yields: Low farm density (40–60 trees/acre in Pakistan vs. 600/acre in Australia/Egypt) limits output/unit area.
• Costs: High input costs (energy, land, compliance) constrain margins and competitiveness.
• Quality Standards: Lack of national grading/standards restricts premium market access.
• Supply Chain: Weak farm-to-port links hinder both volume and quality control for export markets.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Pakistan (Sindh & Punjab Mango Regions): Recent weather has been hot and mostly dry with scattered showers. Extended periods of high temperature may stress maturing fruit, but rainfall in upper Punjab has aided late flowering. Short-term forecast (next 7 days): Mostly sunny, highs 37–41°C, low risk of rain—favorable for final harvest/transport but careful management needed to avoid heat stress and dehydration in fruit.
• Vietnam/Thailand: Mango-growing belts report normal monsoon progression, adequate soil moisture, and seasonally high humidity, supporting both orchard yields and drying operations.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Annual Production (million tons)	Export Share	Main Destinations
India	~25	<2%	Middle East, EU
China	~4.5	Low	Domestic, SE Asia
Pakistan	1.2	10%	China, Middle East, EU
Mexico	2.1	40%	US, Canada
Thailand	3.5	Low	Domestic, regional

💡 Key Market Drivers

• USDA/Global Outlook: Stable to slightly rising global production, but exportable surplus constrained by climate and post-harvest capabilities.
• Speculative Positioning: Major mango markets see steady spot prices; little anticipation of short-term spikes given ample Asian supply.
• Acreage Expansion: Pakistan remains behind global tech curve—switching to higher-density, greenhouse-supported cultivation would expand exportable volumes.
• Policy: Calls for government standards and streamlined export licensing to boost competitiveness.
• Tech Adoption: Rapid improvements in cold chain and preservation technologies support fruit quality and reduce wastage.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Spot prices for dried mango remain stable across Vietnam, Thailand, and Dutch import terminals.
• Export buyers should monitor weather conditions in Pakistan—prolonged dry heat threatens late-season fruit quality, but short-term risks appear low.
• Pakistani exporters: Focus on improved post-harvest handling and invest in value-added facilities (juicing, drying, pulp) for margin growth and market premium.
• Importers: High consumer satisfaction and logistics gains in China point to growing regional demand—seek supply contracts before post-harvest window closes.
• Policy makers: Invest in standards, cost reduction, and innovation incentives to unlock export potential.
• Short-term: With stable pricing and harvest nearly complete, no major supply shock expected in coming days, but monitor currency and fuel volatility for forward contract hedging.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Trend	3-Day Range (EUR/kg)
FOB Hanoi	Dried Mango (Chunks, Slices)	5.62 – 5.85	Stable	5.60 – 5.90
FCA Dordrecht	Dried Mango (Normal sugar)	4.57	Stable	4.53 – 4.59