Peanut Market Dynamics 2025: Government Support, Global Oversupply, and Price Prospects

The global peanut market is currently undergoing a pivotal phase shaped by government policy, shifting supply-demand fundamentals, and changing weather outlooks. Peanuts have traditionally been a stable segment in the global oilseed market, but the past year has introduced new layers of complexity. U.S. peanut growers are on the cusp of potentially the largest increase in government support payments in nearly a decade, as part of an ambitious federal spending bill designed to counteract the adverse effects of volatile commodity prices and rising input costs. This move promises a significant uplift in producer income and could tilt future planting decisions.

Market sentiment, however, remains cautious. While U.S. support measures provide a safety net, the global market wrestles with excess stocks and subdued prices due to weaker export demand and recent bumper harvests. India’s and Brazil’s continued strong production adds further downward pressure on prices. Producers are watching for market signals, including updated USDA planting forecasts and weather models for the 2025 season. With weather now a critical variable amid a record El Niño and continued moisture deficits in some major growing regions, all eyes are on whether supply will tighten enough to spur a price rebound—or if the market will remain mired in oversupply. Given these factors, clarity on production prospects and the real impact of government support will determine short-term market direction.

📈 Peanut Prices on Key Markets

Product Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Roasted split, 60/70/80	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.12	1.14	-1.8%	Bearish
Birdfeed	IN	New Delhi	CFR	1.02	1.04	-1.9%	Bearish
Raw	BR	Brasília	FOB	1.27	1.29	-1.6%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Government Policy: The newly proposed U.S. federal spending bill is expected to increase support payments for peanut growers by 20–30%, a move to counter low export demand and declining prices. If enacted, this will directly boost liquidity and planning confidence through the 2025 season.
• Oversupply & Stocks: Global peanut stocks remain high due to consecutive bumper crops in major exporters (e.g., India, Brazil), maintaining downward pressure on prices in international markets.
• Import Demand: Weaker demand from China and the EU continues to weigh on market sentiment, and increased domestic support elsewhere may slow U.S. exports further.
• Speculation & Acreage: Speculative activity has turned defensive, with market participants wary of further price declines. 2025 planting decisions in the U.S. and India may shift following clearer signals from government support frameworks.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Balances

• Production (Top Exporters, 2024/25 est.):
  • India: 7.2 million MT
  • China: 16.5 million MT (mainly for domestic use)
  • U.S.: 2.7 million MT
  • Brazil: 0.7 million MT
• Global Ending Stocks: Estimated at ~4.8 million MT, higher than the 5-year average.
• Main Importers: China, EU, Indonesia, Egypt
• USDA Reference Price: Proposal to lift benchmark prices could lead to a 20–30% boost in support payments if market prices remain subdued.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Growing Conditions

• India: The monsoon is forecast to continue moderately, with some regional deficits. Key peanut-producing states (Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh) expect near-normal rainfall, supporting yield potential.
• U.S. (Southeast, Texas): Conditions are mixed. Texas has faced recent dryness, but improved showers are on the horizon. Southeast fields remain in good shape, but any extended heat or dry spells in late season could trim yields.
• Brazil: Generally favorable, with sufficient moisture, although isolated dry pockets may limit output slightly in minor areas.

📆 Short-Term Forecast & Trading Outlook

• Bearish undertone likely to persist in Q3 2025 unless a major weather event or a policy surprise tightens stocks.
• U.S. farmer support could cap further price losses by improving liquidity, but surpluses in India and Brazil weigh heavily on global benchmarks.
• Watch for sudden export upticks from buyers seeking to take advantage of government-supported pricing floors, particularly in the U.S.
• Producers should lock in contracts where possible at current levels and plan for cost management given ongoing margin pressures.
• Importers may find attractive buying opportunities if prices remain subdued after the spending bill passes but should monitor weather volatility in the Indian monsoon and U.S. southern states.

Exchange/Product	7-Sep	8-Sep	9-Sep	Direction
New Delhi/Peanuts – Roasted Split 60/70/80 (EUR/kg)	1.12	1.12	1.11	⬇️ Slightly lower
New Delhi/Peanuts – Birdfeed (EUR/kg)	1.02	1.02	1.01	⬇️ Slightly lower
Brasília/Peanuts – Raw (EUR/kg)	1.27	1.27	1.26	⬇️ Slightly lower