Peanut Market Eyes Calm Harvest: Gujarat Weather Boosts Yields, Prices Stable, Exports Poised to Rise

The global peanut market is entering a period of heightened optimism, underpinned by favorable crop conditions in Gujarat—India’s principal groundnut-producing state. Timely and ample monsoon rainfall across critical districts such as Amreli, Junagadh, Jamnagar, and Bhavnagar has improved soil moisture levels, promising a robust harvest for the 2024/25 season. As a result, daily arrivals at major Indian mandis have risen to 20,000–22,000 bags, and prices at key centers like Gondal, Rajkot, and Junagadh are holding firm due to solid domestic and export demand. International buyers in Southeast Asia and Europe are maintaining steady purchasing activity, supporting sentiment even as new season supplies approach.

Market analysts predict that, providing favorable weather holds, Gujarat’s output could climb 10–12% above 2023, stabilizing prices while ensuring strong supply for both local processors and global trade partners. The risk of price volatility remains should arrivals surge in the coming weeks, but the overall supply outlook is positive with crop quality metrics trending higher than last season. Exporters anticipate a further rise in shipments as harvest peaks, while downstream users—particularly in confectionery and birdfeed segments—are likely to benefit from consistent quality supplies. For traders, processors, and importers, the current juncture demands active market monitoring as harvest, export logistics, and global oilseed sentiment will shape trading opportunities in the short term.

📈 Prices: Latest Exchange & Spot Levels

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Roasted split 60/70/80	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.14	-0.01	Steady/Firm
Birdfeed	IN	New Delhi	CFR	1.04	-0.01	Steady
Raw	BR	Brasília	FOB	1.29	-0.01	Steady
Java 70-80	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.03	-0.01	Stable
Java 60-70	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.01	-0.01	Stable
Java 50-60	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.09	-0.01	Stable
Bold 60-70	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.01	-0.01	Stable
Bold 50-60	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.03	-0.01	Stable
Bold 40-50	IN	Gujarat – Gondal	FOB	1.05	-0.01	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Roundup

• India: Gujarat’s groundnut crop outlook is brightening thanks to timely monsoon, with market arrivals accelerating and yield risks receding.
• Export Markets: Strong baseline export demand persists, especially from Southeast Asia and Europe. Steady international inquiries are supporting local prices.
• China: As the world’s largest producer and consumer, China’s buying patterns and stock levels are in focus. Stockpiles remain ample but could draw down if global prices soften.
• Africa & South America: Brazil’s FOB prices remain stable, with adequate exportable surplus. West African crops (notably Nigeria and Senegal) are expected to be average this season.

📊 Fundamentals: Key Market Drivers

• USDA and local Indian crop reports signal overall supply stability for 2024/25.
• Speculative positioning in the oilseed complex generally neutral, with most players focused on weather and arrivals.
• Differentials for premium quality peanuts (e.g., Junagadh) are widening due to strong confectionery and export demand.
• Expectations of a 10–12% YoY crop increase in Gujarat if weather remains benign.
• Solid demand from birdfeed, edible oil processors, and snack manufacturers continues to underpin prices.

☀️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• Gujarat, India: Recent monsoon rainfall has been timely and widespread. Soil moisture is adequate for reproductive growth phases. Mild, dry weather is forecast for the next 3-5 days—favorable for crop maturation and harvest timings.
• Brazil: Weather conditions in key producing states remain generally benign, with no major stress pockets reported.

Potential yield effects: Gujarat is unlikely to face significant abiotic stress in the immediate term; risk of flooding or late-season dryness appears minimal. Watch for potential pest/disease pressure as crop matures.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparisons

Country	2023/24 Production (m MT)	2024/25 est. Production	Stocks (m MT)
China	17.2	17.3	4.9
India	6.6	7.3*	0.7
USA	2.5	2.6	1.1
Brazil	0.6	0.6	0.12
Nigeria	3.2	3.1	0.5
Sudan	1.8	1.8	0.35

*Gujarat output is projected to drive India’s gain. Source: Industry, USDA, local trade estimates.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Gujarat arrivals and quality closely; price dips are possible with peak harvest, offering spot buying opportunities.
• Exporters: Secure forward contracts now for premium quality cargoes as global demand is set to firm up post-harvest.
• Processors: Expect adequate supplies; hold off on aggressive purchases until full-scale arrivals commence.
• Importers: Hedge positions if focusing on Indian origin, as currency and logistics risks may increase post-harvest.
• Speculators: Short-term stability likely, but price volatility could pick up if weather disrupts late crop development.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Spot & Export)

Location/Type	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast (€/kg)	Trend
IN New Delhi, Roasted split 60/70/80	1.14	1.13 – 1.15	Steady
IN New Delhi, Birdfeed	1.04	1.03 – 1.05	Steady/Soft
BR Brasília, Raw	1.29	1.28 – 1.30	Steady
IN Gujarat-Gondal, Bold 40-50	1.05	1.04 – 1.06	Steady

Forecast: Price stability expected amid robust arrivals and healthy crop prospects. Monitor for late weather shifts or export policy updates.