The global peanuts market is currently facing a strong downward correction, predominantly led by heavy new crop arrivals from key producing regions in India, particularly Saurashtra, Gujarat. With groundnut oil prices falling to their lowest levels of the year—trading around $1.05 per liter—and wholesale markets awash with supply, apprehension is building among both farmers and traders. Oil mills have deliberately slowed procurement, compounding the price pressure and raising concerns about price sustainability if arrivals remain robust. Market chatter and social media discussions highlight increasing stress within the value chain, as many now expect further declines unless there is an uptick in demand, especially from international processors and exporters.
While the local festive season could spark a minor recovery in retail demand, analysts warn that unless global inquiries increase and export flows resume, market sentiment will likely remain bearish across the next several weeks. This climate of excess supply and tepid demand is also reflected in the most recent price data for various peanut types—most varieties have posted weekly losses. Comparisons with last season show a notably more pessimistic market outlook, with processors and traders focusing closely on weather, crop arrival pace, and potential export revival.
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Peanuts
bold, 40-50
FOB 1.06 €/kg
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Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.15 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 1.05 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Table
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Term | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peanuts | Bold, 40-50 | IN | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.06 | -0.01 | Bearish |
| Peanuts | Roasted split, 60/70/80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.15 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Peanuts | Birdfeed | IN | New Delhi | CFR | 1.05 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Peanuts | Raw | BR | Brasília | FOB | 1.30 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Peanuts | Java 70-80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.04 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Peanuts | Java 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.02 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Peanuts | Java 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.10 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Peanuts | Bold 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.02 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Peanuts | Bold 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.04 | -0.02 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Trends
- Supply Glut: India’s new crop is arriving in large volumes, notably from Gujarat and Saurashtra, resulting in the lowest seasonal groundnut oil prices. Oil mills have scaled back purchases.
- Demand Shortfall: Export demand remains soft, and domestic processing demand has failed to absorb the surplus. Retail demand is expected to rise marginally during the festive season.
- Discounted Wholesale Prices: Excess supply is driving widespread discounting in the trade.
- Exporter Inquiries: Market sentiment is subdued unless large international buyers return soon.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Seasonal Arrivals: Peak arrivals have weighed on prices; early crop quality is satisfactory, but trader morale is low.
- Processor Activity: Mill demand is lethargic; processors are waiting for further price correction.
- Speculative Positioning: Reports suggest bearish speculative positions, reflecting caution in both futures and spot markets.
- Comparison to Previous Report: Price pressure has deepened since the last report; previous cautious optimism has given way to more pronounced concerns regarding oversupply and faltering exports.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India (Gujarat, Saurashtra): Current monsoon conditions are generally favorable, supporting steady crop arrivals and preserving yield quality. No significant disruptive weather is forecast for the next week.
- Brazil: Weather for the upcoming planting is neutral with moderate rainfall expected, sustaining good planting progress without major crop stress. International buyers are monitoring these conditions closely.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Production (mnt) | Stock/Use Ratio | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~6.7 | High | Bearish |
| China | ~17.5 | Stable | Neutral |
| USA | ~3.1 | Moderate | Neutral |
| Brazil | ~0.55 | Low | Bullish (potential) |
| EU | n/a | Low (import-dependent) | Neutral |
💡 Trading Outlook & Key Insights
- Remain cautious: Surplus supply and price softness may continue at least 1–2 more weeks.
- Monitor international demand: Sharp price recovery unlikely unless major export interest emerges.
- Consider inventory holding: For processors with capacity, opportunistic buying at current lows could provide upside if retail demand surprises to the upside during the festive period.
- Avoid aggressive short-selling: As downside risk is now more limited after steep declines.
- Watch weather and logistics: Any crop delays or logistics issues could offer a brief window of support.
- Key support: Around €1.00/kg for bold and java types in India.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Type | Today (EUR) | Day 2 (EUR, est.) | Day 3 (EUR, est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gujarat – Gondal (IN) | Bold, 40-50 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| New Delhi (IN) | Roasted split, 60/70/80 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.13 |
| New Delhi (IN) | Birdfeed | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| Brasília (BR) | Raw | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
The market is set to remain soft across all major varieties unless there is a dramatic change in global demand or export flows. Weather remains favorable but is being closely monitored for any shift in trend.
