The global peanut market is undergoing a dynamic shift as this season’s sowing progress in Gujarat—India’s peanut powerhouse—signals both challenge and opportunity. Groundnut sowing is nearly complete, yet the total area under cultivation has taken a noticeable dip. Latest figures peg groundnut acreage at 1.42 million hectares, down from 1.57 million hectares last year, primarily due to delayed monsoon rains and shifting farmer preferences. Major districts like Rajkot, Amreli, Junagadh, and Jamnagar all report reduced planting, while rising input costs and seed shortages have steered some producers toward crops like cotton and sesame.
Despite this contraction, there’s a silver lining: improved management practices and the adoption of high-yielding, climate-resilient varieties could bolster yields—provided the critical flowering and pod formation periods receive favorable weather. On the international stage, this shift in India’s output is already nudging up export prices, with Brazilian raw peanuts commanding a premium. Market participants are watching global stock levels carefully, as reduced Indian supply could amplify volatility, especially if weather remains unpredictable. In summary, while total production is expected to decline modestly year-over-year, overall supply contraction is being partially offset by technology gains, and the price outlook remains upbeat.
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Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.14 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 1.04 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
raw
FOB 1.29 €/kg
(from BR)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted Split 60/70/80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.19 | +0.02 | Bullish |
| Birdfeed | IN | New Delhi | CFR | 1.09 | +0.02 | Bullish |
| Raw | BR | Brasília | FOB | 1.34 | +0.02 | Very Bullish |
| Java 70-80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.08 | +0.02 | Bullish |
| Java 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | +0.02 | Bullish |
| Java 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.14 | +0.02 | Bullish |
| Bold 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | +0.02 | Bullish |
| Bold 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.07 | +0.02 | Bullish |
| Bold 40-50 | IN | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.10 | +0.02 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Lower Acreage in Gujarat: Sowing down by 150,000 hectares YoY. Major districts—Rajkot, Amreli, Junagadh—report double-digit declines.
- Weather Impact: Delayed monsoon led to missed sowing windows; risk mitigation strategies now depend on regular rains during pod formation (August–September).
- Farmer Behavior: Increased shift to cotton & pulses due to input cost surge and better price realization potential.
- Seed Dynamics: Higher prices and supply crunch for quality seed varieties (GJG-22, GG-7) also dampened sowing enthusiasm.
- Export Trends: With India’s supply constrained, Brazilian and African origins see price strength. Global demand remains robust in Europe and Asia.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 (Est.) Production (Mio t) | Stocks (Mio t) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~6.5 | Low | /Acreage down but yields may recover |
| China | ~17.0 | High | Stable, self-sufficient |
| USA | ~2.9 | Moderate | Good weather; steady exports |
| Brazil | ~0.6 | Low | Strong export interest |
| Africa (Top 5) | ~10.0 | Variable | Weather volatility, export focused |
- India and China account for over half of global production; India’s acreage drop has an outsized impact on global market sentiment.
- U.S. and Brazil benefit from India’s tighter supply, with U.S. exports picking up and Brazil capturing premium FOB prices.
🌦️ Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
- Saurashtra, Gujarat: Forecast models show improved rainfall through mid-August, critical for pod filling. No major drought signal, but erratic showers remain a risk.
- Madhya Pradesh & Tamil Nadu: Generally adequate moisture, minor concerns over late monsoon retreat.
- Brazil (North/Central): Seasonally dry, but irrigation and improved infrastructure supporting crop conditions.
- U.S. Southeast: Slight water stress early season, but recent rain events have improved outlook.
- Watch for weather volatility during the next 3-4 weeks, as distribution of rainfall will largely determine realization of yield potential in India’s main peanut belt.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ⚡ Bullish risk signals in Indian and Brazilian peanut markets.
- ⚡ Near-term supplies are tight as new crop arrivals will be delayed by 2–3 weeks due to late sowing.
- ⚡ Sellers should consider incremental forward sales at current price levels; buyers urged to secure contracts before seasonal volatility spikes in September.
- ⚡ Expect further upward price momentum if August rains in Gujarat fall short of forecasts.
- 🔎 Monitor exchange rates, shipping costs, and future weather updates to adjust procurement plans accordingly.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Variety | Current Price (€/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (€/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | Roasted Split 60/70/80 | 1.19 | 1.20 – 1.22 |
| New Delhi | Birdfeed | 1.09 | 1.10 – 1.12 |
| Brasília | Raw | 1.34 | 1.35 – 1.37 |
- Outlook: Mild upward trend expected across regions, supported by robust demand and weather-related production risks.