The global peanuts market is currently characterized by remarkable stability, particularly within India, which stands as the world’s largest producer and consumer of peanuts. In the short to medium term, market participants can expect prices to remain largely range-bound. This outlook is supported by India’s strong domestic demand, ongoing government procurement, and seasonally high consumption related to key festivals such as Shravan, Janmashtami, and Ganesh Chaturthi. Meanwhile, the anticipation of a bumper harvest due to increased acreage—especially in Gujarat, where sowing is up by 20–25%—adds a unique layer of complexity, as both supply and demand factors play decisive roles. Despite high existing stock levels and a robust crop outlook, only limited downward price movement is likely, with the floor held firmly by government procurement rates and festive requirements.
Market signals suggest that even as export demand languishes (particularly toward Europe and Russia), domestic channels—backed by government policy and festival-linked consumption—are expected to absorb much of the surplus. The timing and quality of new arrivals, currently impacted by variable rainfall patterns, make for an interesting dynamic as the new crop comes online. In summary, while the potential for lower prices exists given high sowing and large reserves, Indian peanut prices are poised to stay resilient, offering various strategies for both buyers and sellers in the weeks ahead.
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roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.17 €/kg
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CFR 1.07 €/kg
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raw
FOB 1.32 €/kg
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📈 Latest Peanut Prices & Market Sentiment
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted Split 60/70/80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.19 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Birdfeed | IN | New Delhi | CFR | 1.09 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Raw | BR | Brasília | FOB | 1.34 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Java 70-80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.07 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Java 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.05 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Java 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.13 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Bold 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.05 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Bold 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Bold 40-50 | IN | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.09 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Blanched | BR | Brasília | FOB | 1.76 | 0.00 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Domestic Demand: Indian festive season (Shravan, Janmashtami, Ganesh Chaturthi) keeps demand strong for edible oils and peanuts.
- Government Procurement: NAFED is holding 1.1 million tonnes of peanuts in reserves across major states, with active procurement supporting current price levels.
- High Sowing & Crop Prospects: Gujarat reports a 20–25% increase in peanut sowing, but rainfall delays persist in some regions.
- Acreage Shifts: Decline in cotton acreage in favor of peanuts due to higher returns and favorable soils.
- Export Market: Modest exports to Gulf, subdued trade to Europe and Russia due to quality and demand concerns.
- Old Crop Stocks: Farmers’ carryover is low; new arrivals are awaited in the coming weeks.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Stock Comparison
- NAFED Reserves: 600,000 tonnes (Gujarat), 300,000 tonnes (Rajasthan), 200,000 tonnes (Uttar Pradesh & Madhya Pradesh).
- Current NAFED Sales Price: USD 64.46–65.06/quintal; possible decrease to 62.65–63.86/quintal in coming days.
- Expected New Crop Opening Price: Near USD 349.40/tonne.
- Major Exporters: India, USA, Argentina, Brazil; Major Importers: China, EU, Southeast Asia, Middle East.
| Country | 2024 Production Estimate (million tonnes) | Stocks (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 6.9 | ~1.1 |
| China | 17.5 | 5.0 |
| USA | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| Argentina | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Brazil | 0.6 | 0.1 |
🌦 Weather Outlook for Key Regions
- Gujarat: Persistent rain has delayed sowing in certain pockets, but overall, most planting is done. Weather models forecast drier conditions in the next week, likely supporting the completion of any delayed sowing and favoring crop growth.
- Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan: Favorable monsoon so far; minor excess wetness observed but should normalize by next week.
- Argentina & USA: Stable conditions; no immediate weather threats reported.
Continued favorable weather will likely ensure yield potential, with the Gujarat crop especially promising, provided excessive rainfall abates as forecast.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📎 Buyers: Consider forward booking for festive and edible oil demand — prices may dip slightly (0.02–0.03 USD/kg), but large drops unlikely.
- 📎 Sellers/Farmers: Hold selling into new arrivals; take advantage of NAFED’s supports and festive demand. Limited downside risk near current price levels.
- 📎 Exporters: Explore Gulf markets (Iraq/Iran) and monitor quality for renewed interest from Europe/Russia.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Indian Exchanges)
| Date | Expected Price Range (USD/quintal) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 64.00–65.00 | Stable/Soft |
| Day 2 | 63.80–64.80 | Soft |
| Day 3 | 63.70–64.50 | Soft-Stable |
📌 Key takeaway: Downside is limited by demand and procurement. Monitor regional arrivals, weather, and government policy for position adjustments.
