Peanuts Market Bounces Back on Supply Worries and Steady Demand: Outlook Hinges on Weather Developments

The global peanuts market is currently navigating a period of firm prices and cautious sentiment, a result of recent weather-driven setbacks in India’s key producing regions. Haryana’s Bhiwani district—along with neighboring areas—gave early promise for the groundnut crop this year, but erratic rainfall during sowing and unsettled weather through the season have led to patchy crop health. Some fields report robust yields, but many show visible stress, prompting local farmers and market observers to brace for a potentially reduced harvest. Harvesting is progressing slowly, and new crop arrivals from the region remain modest, supporting a tight supply environment.

This squeeze in availability is felt in benchmark Indian markets: at Adesar, groundnuts reached 771 USD/ton, underscoring sturdy demand against a backdrop of limited arrivals. Market participants remain on edge, watching weather forecasts closely: forecasts suggesting a return to stability could cap price rallies, but continued volatility risks sustaining or even escalating the firmness. Globally, the market continues to adjust to local production news, the interplay of export prospects in India and Brazil, and import trends across China and the EU. Firms, traders, and end-users are cautiously optimistic but are advised to remain agile in a market prone to weather-driven surprises and fluctuating exportable surpluses.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
IN	Roasted Split 60/70/80	New Delhi	FOB	1.11	0.0%	Firm
IN	Birdfeed	New Delhi	CFR	1.01	0.0%	Firm
BR	Raw	Brasília	FOB	1.26	0.0%	Firm
IN	Java 70-80	New Delhi	FOB	1.00	0.0%	Stable
IN	Java 60-70	New Delhi	FOB	0.98	0.0%	Stable
IN	Java 50-60	New Delhi	FOB	1.06	0.0%	Stable
IN	Bold 60-70	New Delhi	FOB	0.98	0.0%	Stable
IN	Bold 50-60	New Delhi	FOB	1.00	0.0%	Stable
IN	Bold 40-50	Gujarat – Gondal	FOB	1.02	0.0%	Stable
IN	Adesar Benchmark	Adesar	Local	771 USD/ton	+0.8%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India’s Crop Stress: Erratic early rainfall in Haryana and other key states has led to uneven crop performance. Some fields look robust, while others are vulnerable—raising yield uncertainty.
• Harvest & Arrivals: Harvesting is underway but arrivals remain modest, keeping supplies tight and supporting price firmness.
• Demand Remains Steady: Both domestic Indian and export markets (notably to the EU and Southeast Asia) continue to underpin firm prices despite production headwinds.
• Traders’ Perspective: Positive price sentiment is sustained by the supply gap, but all eyes are on near-term harvest and weather news.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Context

• India: Largest exporter of groundnuts, with quality and quantity both affected this year by disrupted monsoon and local storms.
• Brazil: Strong production keeps export offers competitive, but with firmness in India, interest in South American origin persists.
• China & EU: Major importers expected to remain active buyers; little price respite expected unless a large Indian crop materializes.
• Speculative Positioning: General market tone remains cautious, with sustained interest from processors and exporters.

Country	2023 Production (‘000 tons)	2023/24 Stocks (‘000 tons)	2024 Outlook
India	6,900	700	Down, weather-driven risk
China	17,700	2,200	Stable
Brazil	535	120	Up, strong exports
USA	2,800	380	Stable

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Recent rainfall over Haryana remains spotty and erratic with short dry spells, likely limiting further crop harm if stability persists. 10-day weather models suggest a shift toward moderate, seasonally steady patterns—potentially limiting further production losses if realized.
• Gujarat, another major Indian peanut-producing region, is transitioning from scattered thunderstorms to drier and clearer conditions, favoring final crop development and harvest progress.
• Brazil and U.S. growing regions report mostly average to above-average precipitation, keeping production prospects supportive.

If the predicted stabilization holds, output declines may be less severe. Persistent volatility in monsoon, however, could rekindle supply fears and bolster prices even further.

📆 Market Outlook & Trade Recommendations

• Producers: Consider hedging or scaling up forward sales to capture the current firmness if weather signals stabilize further.
• Buyers & Processors: Secure near-term needs promptly, but avoid overextending if a near-term supply uptick emerges with harvest acceleration.
• Exporters: Monitor India export prices versus Brazil—competitive tenders may arise if Indian product quality/volume disappoints.
• Traders: Stay alert to daily arrivals and updated weather checks; price spikes may occur swiftly if more adverse news emerges from the harvest.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Market	Today	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
Adesar (India)	771 USD/ton	775 USD/ton	777 USD/ton	778 USD/ton
New Delhi (FOB, Java 70-80, IN)	1.00 EUR/kg	1.00 EUR/kg	1.01 EUR/kg	1.01 EUR/kg
Brasília (FOB, Raw, BR)	1.26 EUR/kg	1.27 EUR/kg	1.28 EUR/kg	1.28 EUR/kg

Short-term forecast: Mild upward drift continues unless substantial new crop arrivals break the tightness. Weather and arrival updates remain the main volatility triggers.