Peas Market Analysis: Stability Amid Strong Arrivals and Firm Demand

The global pea market has entered October with notable resilience, defying typical harvest-driven price volatility. In New Delhi, domestic arrivals of peas have been consistently robust since early October, ensuring abundant supply across key consumption regions. Despite this significant influx, prices have remained steady, hovering at approximately $44 per 100 kg. This price stability, especially in tandem with continued strong demand from bulk buyers, underscores a market that is both healthy and attractive to stockists and traders.

Even after the recent uptick in prices, underlying demand dynamics remain firm, validating a positive sentiment throughout the supply chain. With new crop arrivals not exerting notable downward pressure on the market, the trading environment is considered low-risk for now. According to analysts, any slight price softening could present attractive entry points for longer-term buyers, given the supportive fundamentals. The current price levels provide a favorable risk-reward scenario for those looking to secure positions ahead of seasonal shifts and potential supply disruptions.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/mt)	Prev. Price (EUR/mt)	Change	Update	Market Sentiment
GB	Marrowfat	–	London	FOB	1.34	1.34	0.00	2025-10-03	Stable
GB	Green	–	London	FOB	1.02	1.02	0.00	2025-10-03	Stable
UA	Green	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.40	0.41	-0.01	2025-10-03	Softening
UA	Yellow	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.30	0.30	0.00	2025-10-03	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Domestic arrivals in India are strong, supporting ample supplies and maintaining downward pressure on prices.
• Demand is stable and firm, particularly from bulk buyers and processors, preventing price declines despite high arrivals.
• European and Ukrainian export offers show stability, with only a modest decline on green peas from Odesa.
• Expectations are that the supply chain will remain well-supplied at least through the current month, barring weather disruptions.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA and global outlooks remain neutral for peas: No significant shortfall in major exporting countries (Canada, Russia, Ukraine).
• Inventories are comfortable with no immediate concerns over old crop exhaustion.
• Speculative interest remains limited—trading dominated by commercial hedging and physical supply-demand needs.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India’s North and Central growing belts are expected to see average rainfall and stable temperatures over the next week—no adverse impact on late harvesting or fresh sowings is expected.
• Ukraine and parts of East Europe forecast mild, dry weather with some sporadic showers, supporting logistics and ongoing export loadings.
• No severe disruptions are anticipated in key pea-growing regions globally for the immediate forecast period.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production est. (K mt)	2024/25 Exports est. (K mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (K mt)
Canada	3,500	2,000	400
Russia	2,000	950	200
Ukraine	850	650	110
India	900	n/a	250

📌 Key Insights & Trading Outlook

• Market remains stable and well supplied; price risk is low unless unforeseen weather or export restrictions emerge.
• Bullish if India’s demand remains strong and new arrivals slow later in the season.
• Any dip in prices may offer a good buying opportunity for stockists.
• Exporters should monitor freight markets and currency trends, which could affect export parity in the coming weeks.
• Long positions can be favored at current price levels for medium-term gains.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location (Type)	Current Price (EUR/mt)	3-Day Forecast	Market Note
London (Marrowfat)	1.34	1.34 – 1.36	Stable to slightly firm on end-user demand
London (Green)	1.02	1.02 – 1.04	No change expected
Odesa (Green)	0.40	0.39 – 0.41	Mild downside risk